Super Screener: 20-1 shot the win pick in Federico Tesio Stakes

Saturday's Federico Tesio Stakes carries a storied history and, traditionally, it had been run at Pimlico Race Course before moved to Laurel Park when race meet dates in Maryland changed. A "win and you're in" prep for the Preakness Stakes, it often includes 3-year-olds who were late to develop, were a cut or two below the best in the drop, or had distance challenges that prevented a serious run at the Kentucky Derby.

Horse Racing Nation's Super Screener handicapping system found that certainly the case this year, though it is an attractive betting race.

Inspiration for the Super Screener Stakes Weekly analysis came from our loyal Triple Crown and Breeders’ Cup Super customers. They have often asked us for a product focused on analyzing the key graded stakes that run each weekend throughout the year.

What's offered here -- for free -- is only a small sample of the full product now available. This weekend's edition also covers Keeneland's Grade 2 Elkhorn, as well as Laurel's Henry Clark Stakes on turf.

Now, for that Federico Tesio longshot winner...

The pace here projects to be quite swift with strong pressure setting this one up for a mid-pack closer that can handle the 1 1/8-mile distance. From the inside post, Takedown will take up position last in the field and will sit about six lengths off the fray up front, and then release energy in a measured way. Form cycle analysis indicates he will move forward significantly off that effort and match his lifetime top established three races ago.

He’ll also handle the added ground. While he finished his last work on even terms with his stablemate, he submitted the better breeze. Not sure if we’ll get 20-1, but there will be value-a-plenty on this colt. Note that jockey Luis Garcia opted to stick with stablemate Dynamic Asset, for what that’s worth.

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