Super Screener: 12-1 top play in the Springboard Mile
A rare Friday night Kentucky Derby prep will take place at Remington Park in the Springboard Mile.
The wide-open race offers 10 Derby points to the winner and has attracted a field of 11 with diverse backgrounds.
The favorites look a bit vulnerable, opening the door for nice price potential in this great betting race.
Saffa's Day looks poised to pull off an upset at 12-1. This Steve Asmussen charge won his debut impressively at Keeneland going 6 1/2 panels while drawing away, laying out big BRIS Pace/Speed Rating figures throughout. After such a huge effort and a move to face much, much tougher 4 weeks later in the Nov. 6 Nyquist Stakes, it was no surprise that he regressed and finished sixth.
Here, he gets first-time Lasix and drops into much softer competition. He plays right into the winning track profile that favors pressers. He will be able to throttle back considerably from what he laid out in his last two starts. He has had plenty of time to recover now, and his last work on this surface was brilliant.
Drawing the 10th slot in a field of 11, Joe Frazier did not get the best position with that short run to the first turn, but the Brad Cox charge figures here. He won his debut on a good Keeneland surface and did so very professionally.
In his next start, he was moved up against stiffer competition and into a two-turn route. He struck to the front, dueling throughout a very fast middle part of the race. He understandably threw down anchor in the final 16th. First-time Lasix is going to help and so will the cut back both in distance and level of competition. Would much prefer 6-1 or higher on this top contending colt.
Cowan won his debut on dirt rather convincingly at Churchill Downs last May. Fast forward to the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, and we saw him finish with huge kick to catch second place behind the highly regarded, odds-on favorite, Golden Pal. The Super Screener defiantly likes this one better on the lawn sprinting, but at least he is proven on dirt and has worked well on the local surface. Like other contenders in here, he ships in from Keeneland to face easier.
Outadore will be out on the lead, competing with many others who share their desire to be on the lead. He makes his dirt debut For Wesley Ward and certainly has trained well over that surface, culminating with a big work on Dec 11. He has the valuable 2-turn route experience and is another that will receive Lasix for the first time. The Super Screener much prefers this horse on turf and just can’t take the low odds here as there is too much pace, post and surface risk. Use with caution.
Cowan and Outadore are solid 2-year-olds, but do not take a short price as they try a surface that is not likely to be their best.
Saffa's Day offers proven dirt form and a nice price for top connections. He and Joe Frazier are the right two horses to key.
Wagering Strategy
$12 Exacta Box 7,10
$10 Exacta 7,10 with 8,9
$1 Trifecta 7,10 with 1,4,6 with 1,2,4,6,7,8,9,10
$1 Trifecfa 4,6,8,9 with 7,10 with 4,6,7,8,9,10
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