Super Derby fair odds: Pace edge favors 1 contender

The showpiece of the Louisiana Downs meeting is the $250,000 Super Derby on Saturday, and a pair of multiple stakes winners figure to take most of the bettors' money in their pursuit of another lucrative score.

The 1 1/8-mile race drew a field of eight led by Texas Derby winner Instant Replay and Petramalo Mile Stakes winner Rolando. The latter likely will look to get the jump on the former as Rolando has shown more speed early than the likely favorite. But that ninth furlong has a chance to be the final arbiter.

I did give a slight edge to Rolando because of the early speed, though I am concerned about two turns, let alone nine furlongs, being uncharted territory for the son of Vekoma. His win last out came at a one-turn mile at Colonial Downs.

Instant Replay won his lone 1 1/8-mile start and is 3-for-6 around two turns. Still, he is likely to be bet more given his big stakes-wins trainer Brad Cox shipping in. That leaves me thinking Rolando is the better play on top.

From a wagering perspective, I expect Rolando to offer value in the win pool. Given the race shape, though, if Rolando wins then Instant Replay is very likely to be in the exotics mix. That makes playing those suspect given they're the top two choices in a field of eight.

But if Instant Replay were to win, then a case can be made that Rolando is off the board entirely, and that opens up using horses such as Mister Omaha and He's Late Again to fill the exotics behind Instant Replay.

Horse Racing Nation provides the morning line for Louisiana Downs.