Super Derby fair odds: Getting the distance at Louisiana Downs

The Super Derby is known for being the richest race on the Louisiana Downs calendar with a rich history to go with it. It also happens to be one of the longest races at the Bossier City, La., oval with its 1 1/8-mile distance providing a stern test for the seven 3-year-old males who are entered.

Of that septet going Saturday, only morning-line favorite no. 5 How Did He Do That has raced at the Super Derby distance, and it was the worst race of the multiple-stakes winner's career.

The only other horse with stakes experience in the Super Derby field is no. 1 Machine Gun Man, and he was soundly beaten in all three of those added-money tries.

That makes this race ripe for a fresh face to the stakes scene with no. 6 Promise Me a Ride checking the most boxes for me to the point that I actually see the Brad Cox trainee for Kueber Racing and Big Easy Racing as the most likely winner.

Promise Me a Ride's two wins came in off-the-turf contests, but I am encouraged that Cox has always wanted this Mastery colt to go longer, seeing no issue with debuting him at 1 1/16 miles. 

The question tactically is whether no. 4 Big Data runs with Promise Me a Ride early. This will be Big Data's first try around two turns, but he has performed well going a one-turn mile at Gulfstream Park and could show a little more gas here with two bends. He is 9-2 in the program and would be worth a look at 6-1 if Promise Me a Ride takes more money than the morning-line maker thinks he will.

The forecast favorite How Did He Do That is almost certain to be an underlay, so I am approaching my strategy for betting this race as if he will be unbettable.

The Super Derby is scheduled for Saturday at 5:53 p.m. EDT.