Sunland Park Derby fair odds: Bet against vulnerable favorites

How to bet the Grade 3, $400,000 Sunland Park Derby is an easy question to answer given that the horse who is the third choice on the morning line is my most likely winner.

No. 4 Lucky Jeremy stayed local after shipping west for trainer Bill Morey and winning the Riley Allison Derby on Jan. 19 at Sunland. He worked locally between that race and this one, and I see that as an advantage worth backing at the windows-especially given his 4-1 morning line against my 5-2 morning line.

Of the two contenders based on the morning line prices, favored no. 5 Stronghold and second choice no. 8 Informed Patriot, I greatly prefer the former. Stronghold has been second behind a pair of Bob Baffert-trained colts in other graded stakes races. He is certainly the class of the field, but the speed ratings say Lucky Jeremy is the faster horse.

Informed Patriot is a complete toss for me at the expected price. Obviously he can win, and jockey Joel Rosario shipping in for Racing Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen merits respect, but 3-1 is way too light.

From a wagering perspective, Lucky Jeremy is a key win play, but secondarily, I would be willing to toss Informed Patriot from exotic wagers. This allows us to use Stronghold in certain wagers even at an underlaid win price.