Sunland Park Derby: Kentucky Derby prep odds & analysis

Sunday’s Grade 3, $400,000 Sunland Park Derby is the signature race at Sunland Park in New Mexico and a stop on the road to the 2024 Kentucky Derby offering 20-10-6-4-2 qualifying points to the eligible finishers.

Recent winners of the Sunland Park Derby include 2022 winner Slow Down Andy, a now-$1.27 million earner who went on to win the Awesome Again (G1). In 2012 Daddy Nose Best went from Sunland and ran in the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness to bankroll just under $1 million.

Here is the analysis for the 1 1/8-mile Sunland Park Derby with the official track morning line odds. It is scheduled as race 9 on a 10-race card with post time set for 6:17 p.m. EST.

1. No Trouble, 10-1. World of Trouble – Joe Marr / Ken Tohill – 2: 1-1-0 - $25,800. No Trouble broke his maiden in his second try as an odds-on favorite at Sunland for local trainer Joel Marr who won the Sunland Park Derby with a 35-1 long shot last year. Toss.

2. Surroundedbyangels, 12-1. Smiling Tiger – Bart Hone / Alejandro Medellin – 2: 1-0-1 - $26,800. Surroundedbyangels is one of the local entries that was a debut winner at Sunland by more than three-lengths at 4-1 in a field of 11. He stepped up to the Riley Allison Derby, which is the local prep race for the Sunland Park Derby, where he flashed speed and was no match for the top two finishers that are also in this field. Toss.

3. Curlin’s Kaos, 5-1. Clubhouse Ride – Antonio Garcia / Diego Herrera – 2: 1-0-1 - $63,120. Curlin’s Kaos is a California-bred that broke his maiden in his fourth start at Santa Anita on the turf against state-breds. His regular California rider makes the trip to New Mexico to stay on board. Toss.

4. Lucky Jeremy, 4-1. Lookin At Lucky – William Morey / Christian Ramos – 3: 2-0-0 - $115,000. Lucky Jeremy is the only stakes winner in the field. He began his career in Kentucky and broke his maiden in his second try in October. He shipped to New Mexico to make his 2024 debut a winning one in the Riley Allison. Win contender.

5. Stronghold, 5-2. Ghostzapper – Philip D’Amato / Antonio Fresnu – 4: 1-3-0 - $144,400. Stronghold has a class edge over this field after a pair of second-place finishes behind Bob Baffert runners in California graded-stakes. He had a stalking trip in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2), got the lead, and was passed by Wynstock and beat another Baffert runner in Coach Prime. In the Bob Hope (G3), Stronghold was second to Nysos, the current top-ranked American 3-year-old. Stronghold earned 5 Derby points from those two races. Top choice.

6. Alotaluck, 6-1. Sir Prancealot– Ty Garrett / Oscar Ceballos – 2: 1-1-0 - $47,000. Alotaluck was also seen last in the Riley Allison where he was involved in a duel for the lead for most of the mile race and fought hard but was second best. He broke his maiden at first asking at Zia Park in December against a large field with a pace-pressing trip. Use underneath.

7. Da Ringo, 20-1. Union Rags – Jose Gonzalez Jr. / Alfredo Juarez Jr. – 7: 1-2-1 - $21,918. Da Ringo was a distant fourth in the Riley Allison and was never a factor in that race. He broke his maiden in his sixth start by at neck at Remington Park in October and was claimed for $7,500. Toss.

8. Informed Patriot, 3-1. Hard Spun – Steve Asmussen / Joel Rosario – 5: 1-0-3 - $135,000. – Informed Patriot earned 6 Derby points from a pair of third-place finishes in the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn Park and the Street Sense at Churchill Downs. He got his maiden victory under the twin spires as the favorite in September. Joel Rosario takes the mount for Steve Asmussen who won this race twice in 2017 with Hence and in 2012 with Daddy Nose Best. Use underneath.

Summary: A fast pace is expected in the Sunland Park Derby that drew a field of eight 3-year-olds. Lucky Jeremy is the only stakes winner in the field with his victory in the Riley Allison. Stronghold and Informed Patriot have Kentucky Derby points from their top three finishes, each ran on the Derby trail twice.

Stronghold is the top choice. He has a significant class edge on this field from his seconds in California graded-stakes behind talented Bob Baffert runners. Play Stronghold with Lucky Jeremy and Informed Patriot in the exacta.