Sunland Derby analysis: Taking a stand against Straight Up G

The $500,000 Grade 3 Sunland Derby returns after a two-year hiatus. Last held in 2019, New Mexico's sole qualifier for the 2022 Kentucky Derby awards a scale of 50-20-10-5 points.

Eight 3-year-olds, two from the Asmussen barn, will line up for the 1 1/8-mile contest.

Let's take a look at the field.

For most of the Mine That Bird Derby, Bye Bye Bobby (9-2) battled inside of Classic Moment in a match race as the pair traveled a couple of lengths off Straight Up G. The pretty gray colt cut the corner on the far turn and made a belated late charge to finish second, three-quarters length in front of that Classic Moment, who took the overland trip.

The Todd Fincher trainee was previously out-dueled in the one-mile Riley Allison Derby, finishing a neck behind Pepper Spray. By Quality Road, out of a daughter of Preakness winner Red Bullet, and a half-brother to Bourbon (G3) winner Poker Player, Bye Bye Bobby should have no issue with the extra distance. However, he'll have to overcome his seconditis. Fincher's Runaway Ghost turned a second-place finish in the 2018 Mine That Bird Derby into a Sunland Derby victory. Win contender.

Classic Moment (7-2) had a wide trip throughout the Mine That Bird Derby, yet managed to close despite it to finish third, 5 3/4-lengths ahead of the fourth-place finisher. He improved his Brisnet Speed Rating by five points over his six-place finish in the Southwest Stakes (G3). Steve Asmussen should have Classic Moment fit, and the colt has the best pedigree in the Sunland Derby field. By Classic Empire, his dam is a half-sister to champion mare Beholder, leading sire Into Mischief, and to Grade 1 winner Mendelssohn. Win contender.

Slow Down Andy (2-1) hopes to rebound against softer company after a wide trip in the Risen Star (G2), where he finished sixth, ten lengths behind Epicenter. The Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) winner breezed a bullet six furlongs in 1:12.40 from the gate on March 19 in company with the maiden B Dawk. Slow Down Andy was relaxed during the breeze. He lengthened stride in the stretch without being asked, and left his stablemate in the dust. The Doug O'Neil trainee worked in blinkers, which he'll wear during the race.

RaceLens' 5-year stats has O'Neil at a 27 win percent with first-time blinkers in their second start off a layoff. By Kentucky Derby hero Nyquist out of a daughter of sprint influence Square Eddie, Slow Down Andy may find 1 1/8-miles at the top of his distance range. Win contender.

Straight Up G (5-2) successfully moved to open company and was never challenged in the Mine That Bird Derby until the final furlong, and he hung on to win by three-quarters length. The talented Richard Baltas trainee is a true pacesetter, and there are concerns about his handling an additional half-furlong. Straight Up G is by the second-crop sprint, sire Straight Fire out of an unraced daughter of Sky Mesa. Additionally, The colt's final half-furlong in the Mine That Bird Derby was a pokey 7.07, and his late-pace Brisnet speed rating of 78 is one of the lowest in the field. Second and third-place finishers Bye Bye Bobby and Classic Moment closed the gap in the stretch. Lower Exotics.

Classic Moment's stablemate Costa Terra (8-1) hasn't lived up to his pedigree, but he could improve this year. He was never engaged at any point in the Southwest (G3). However, next out in an allowance contest, Costa Tera made two moves; first, jockey Francisco Arrieta moved him up to race between rivals, although there was no clear path forward. Then, he backed out of that arrangement, went five-wide around the turn, and altered paths in the stretch. Costa Tera was willing enough and improved his position to finish fourth.

By Gun Runner and a half-brother to late-blooming Pegasus stakes winner Pneumatic, Costa Terra should relish the extra distance. In addition, he gets the meet's third-leading jock, Luis Negron, in the saddle. Over the last three months, Negron has an 18 percent win rate in route races. Live Longshot Exotics.

Chrome King (15-1) gets another class check after winning the Startac Stakes over the lawn and Turf Paradise Derby. By Munnings, who gets the occasional winner at nine-furlongs, out of a stakes-winning turf miler, Chrome King may handle the extra distance, especially with his off-the-pace running style. However, Pepper Spray has beaten him twice by double-digits and was 13 lengths out of it in the Riley Allison Derby behind that rival and Bye Bye Bobby. Toss.

Pepper Spray (15-1) had his perfect record shredded in his first two-turn attempt in the Mine That Bird Derby. He was wide the entire way and tired to finish a distant 13-lengths behind Straight Up G. He could rebound but breaking from post six of eight likely means another wide trip. Toss.

Fowler Blue (20-1) ran evenly in his 3-year-old debut to claim fourth place in the Mine That Bird Derby. The race was also his first try, around two turns. The Luis Mendez trainee has finished exactly 7 1/4-lengths behind Straight Up G twice in his career, and the son of Curlin to Mischief's speed figures are middling. Toss.

Analysis

Favorites have won four of the last six editions of the Sunland Derby. Surprisingly, only one of the last six won their previous start, although three finished second.

Straight Up G is the confirmed front runner, but breaking from the far outside means that he'll need to use early speed to earn his customary position.

Bye Bye Bobby and Classic Moment may sit closer this time, and Slow Down Andy may be in the mix.

Although it's possible that the tenacious Straight Up G could steal the race if allowed soft fractions, I think it more likely that one of the trio mentioned above will pounce in the final furlong. Costa Terra could hit the lower exotics with a better trip, and I'll add him in a lower exotics spot, taking a stand against Straight Up G.

Classic Moment (7-2)

Bye Bye Bobby (9-2)

Slow Down Andy (2-1)

Costa Terra (8-1)