Sunday's top speed figures: Churchill runners top the lists
Thoughtthatcounts topped Sunday's speed figures with a 136 Horse Racing Nation rating at Churchill Downs. The 4-year-old gelding by Sky Mesa captured a one-mile dirt allowance optional claimer at 3-1 odds, earning his fifth career victory from 16 starts.
Maximum Bourbon posted a 132 HRN figure at Churchill Downs in his career debut for trainer Brendan Walsh. The 3-year-old gelding by Maximum Security won a six-furlong dirt maiden claimer at 9-2 odds in a dominant win by 7 1/2 lengths.
Normandy Hero completed the top three with a 129 HRN speed figure at Laurel Park. The 4-year-old colt by Omaha Beach won a 5 1/2-furlong optional-claiming allowance on turf at 4-1 odds, securing his seventh career win from 25 starts.
Saturday's top 10 speed figures
| HRN | Horse | Sire | Age | Race | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 136 | Thoughtthatcounts | Sky Mesa | 4G | CD 8 | 1 mile dirt |
| 132 | Maximum Bourbon | Maximum Security | 3G | CD 7 | 6f dirt |
| 129 | Normandy Hero | Omaha Beach | 4C | LRL 8 | 5 1/2f turf |
| 126 | Beach Colt | Competitive Edge | 6G | GP 10 | 6f dirt |
| 125 | Time Passes | Not This Time | 3G | WO 8 | 7f syn |
| 124 | Mrs. Astor | Lookin At Lucky | 5M | DMR 7 | 1 3/8 turf |
| 122 | Indy Charges On | Take Charge Indy | 3G | LRL 5 | 1 mile dirt |
| 120 | Mob | Gun Runner | 2C | CD 10 | 6 1/2f dirt |
| 120 | Mosler Time | Mosler | 5G | LRL 7 | 1 mile dirt |
| 120 | Total Sensation | Speightstown | 3G | WO 7 | 6f syn |
Fastest maiden winners
Maximum Bourbon also led all maiden winners with his 132 HRN figure at Churchill Downs. He is out of Unbridled Reward, a Warrior's Reward mare who earned $48,000, and his top sibling Pout by Dialed In has earned $74,000.
Time Passes impressed with a 125 HRN figure at Woodbine in his sixth career start. The 3-year-old gelding by Not This Time captured a seven-furlong synthetic maiden special weight at 4-5 odds, winning by 3 3/4 lengths. He is out of Completed, a Verrazano mare who earned $3,000.
Mob earned a 120 at Churchill Downs in his career debut. The 2-year-old colt by Gun Runner won a 6 1/2-furlong dirt maiden special weight at 5-1 odds for his first career victory. He is out of Onslaught, a Street Sense mare who earned no recorded earnings.
Saturday's top maiden winners
| HRN | Horse | Sire | Age | Race | Distance | Winning Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 132 | Maximum Bourbon | Maximum Security | 3G | CD 7 | 6f dirt | 7 1/2 |
| 125 | Time Passes | Not This Time | 3G | WO 8 | 7f syn | 3 3/4 |
| 120 | Mob | Gun Runner | 2C | CD 10 | 6 1/2f dirt | 1 1/2 |
| 120 | Total Sensation | Speightstown | 3G | WO 7 | 6f syn | 2 |
| 119 | Dilwaala | Heart to Heart | 3G | WO 11 | 7f syn | 3 3/4 |
| 119 | Enforced Agenda | Liam's Map | 2C | AQU 5 | 1 mile dirt | 1 |
| 116 | Alfred Bellows | Goldencents | 3G | WO 5 | 6 1/2f syn | 1 1/2 |
| 115 | New York Scrappy | Solomini | 4G | AQU 3 | 7f dirt | 3/4 |
| 113 | Nimah | Gun Runner | 2F | DMR 8 | 6 1/2f dirt | 1 3/4 |
| 109 | Treadstone | Tapit | 2C | AQU 6 | 1 mile dirt | 3/4 |
About HRN speed figures
HRN speed figures are AI-generated using HRN's proprietary machine-learning algorithms. Although they involve less human input than other speed figures, we see that as a plus as human adjustments often knock down surprisingly good performances to match expectations. HRN speed figures were launched in December 2024, and our expectation is also that the AI-generated speed figures will continuously get better over time.
The HRN speed figure scale goes from 1 to 160. Part of the reason for this higher scale is this helps us avoid assigning a speed figure of zero. For some products, in weaker races, half the field or more may get a speed figure of zero, which leads to inaccuracy and defeats the purpose of speed figures.
Because the HRN speed figures are based on machine learning, as we improve our models we can compute the numbers historically.
Using the top last-race speed figure as a benchmark, here are stats from 2021 to 2024 for HRN and other speed-figure providers:
Top HRN figure, 26.2% winners
Top Beyer figure, 28.1% winners
Top TimeformUS figure, 28.4% winners
Although all HRN speed figures are published on individual horse profile pages on a weekly basis, the daily reports are focused on the top and medium-tier tracks, which represent the majority of top speed figures.
Note: For the fastest maiden winners mentioned, all dam and sibling earnings are based on North America starts only.