Suburban odds and analysis: Locked takes on 7 rivals

The Grade 2, $400,000 Suburban will be run Friday at Saratoga. The Suburban is run at 1 1/4 miles and drew a field of eight horses from the older male dirt division. The top four finishers get the $4,400 of entry fees paid for the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) on Aug. 31.

The Suburban field includes two horses with career earnings of more than $1 million, five who are graded-stakes winners and two others who are graded-stakes placed. Together the field has 37 victories with earnings of more than $6.6 million.

Here is a full-field analysis for the Suburban with morning-line odds from the Horse Racing Nation staff. The race is scheduled for 6:19 p.m. EDT and is carded as race 10 of 11.

1. Phileas Fogg, 6-1. Astern – Gustavo Rodriguez / Kendrick Carmouche – 17: 8-4-0 - $516,773. Phileas Fogg finished first or second in his last six starts, with two wins in allowance races and two stakes victories at Aqueduct, and each time he set or pressed the pace. Most recently he went from an easy win in the Excelsior going 10 furlongs to a second in the Pimlico Special on the Preakness undercard. He was claimed from a turf race at Saratoga last summer for $62,500. Use underneath.

2. Disarm, 10-1. Gun Runner – Steve Asmussen / Joel Rosario – 16: 4-3-3 - $1,439,165. Disarm was a prominent 3-year-old in 2023 with a second in the Louisiana Derby (G2) and a third in the Lexington (G3), which allowed him to finish fourth in the Kentucky Derby behind Mage. He also won the Matt Winn (G3) and was second in the Travers (G1), which was won by Arcangelo. Since then, Disarm won an allowance at Churchill Downs in 2024 and another one at Oaklawn in March as a 5-year-old. Toss.

3. San Siro, 20-1. Classic Empire – Brendan Walsh / Luis Saez – 12: 3-1-2 - $279,819. San Siro has a pair of allowance victories since breaking his maiden at Fair Grounds in March 2024. This year he ran in three graded stakes with a second in the Ben Ali (G3), and last month he was fourth in the Pimlico Special behind two horses who are in the Suburban. Toss.

4. Locked, 7-5. Gun Runner – Todd Pletcher / Jose Ortiz – 9: 5-1-2 - $1,698,825. Locked is the only Grade 1 winner in this field and the leading money winner. In March he romped in the Santa Anita Handicap (G1) by more than eight lengths as an odds-on favorite. As a 2-year-old he won the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and last year he won the Cigar Mile (G2) as a 3-year-old. Locked was second in the 2025 Pegasus World Cup (G1) behind White Abarrio and most recently was fourth in the Alysheba (G2). The one to beat.

5. Bendoog, 10-1. Gun Runner – Bill Mott / Jose Lezcano – 20: 5-8-3 - $867,716. Bendoog began his career racing in Dubai 10 times. He came to American in 2023 and joined the Bill Mott barn. Since then, he finished first or second in nine of 10 starts. Bendoog was second in the Suburban at Saratoga last year after having the lead and had place finishes four other times. Last seen he won an allowance at Aqueduct in May against a field of five. Use underneath.

6. Honor Marie, 12-1. Honor Code – Whit Beckman / Ben Curtis – 10: 3-2-0 - $764,370. Honor Marie won the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) as a 2-year-old, which launched him onto the Kentucky Derby trail where he was second in the Louisiana Derby in 2024. He was eighth in the run for the roses, fourth in the Belmont Stakes and eighth in the Travers (G1) after getting far behind in the early going. Honor Marie got the third win of his career in the Isaac Murphy Marathon at Churchill in April. The 10-furlong distance should suit him well. Live long shot.

7. Antiquarian, 4-1. Preservationist – Todd Pletcher / John Velazquez – 7: 3-2-0 - $314,100. Antiquarian was late to start his career and broke his maiden in his second start at Fair Grounds as a 3-year-old. He was sixth in the Louisiana Derby but won the Peter Pan (G3). In the Belmont he was fifth behind Dornoch, Mindframe and Sierra Leone. After an eight-month layoff, Antiquarian won an allowance at Gulfstream Park and was second in the Blame (G3) behind Mystic Dan after having the lead. Use underneath.

8. Awesome Aaron, 9-2. Practical Joke – Norm Casse / Irad Ortiz Jr.– 34: 6-3-6 - $571,263. Awesome Aaron is in the best form of his career as a 6-year-old. He won an allowance at Oaklawn by almost six lengths and won the Pimlico Special earning by far the best two speed figures of his career. John Velazquez rode Awesome Aaron in all but one of his races but shows up on Antiquarian in the Suburban. Win contender.

Summary: Locked has a big class advantage in this Suburban field as the only Grade 1 winner. He actually is a two-time Grade 1 winner, going back to the Breeders’ Futurity as a juvenile. Since breaking his maiden Locked has run in six Grade 1 or 2 stakes and only once did not finish in the top three. Locked has victories at distances of seven to 10 furlongs.

The distance should suit Honor Marie well, and Awesome Aaron is at his best now as a 6-year-old. But Locked will not be easy to beat and is the top pick.