Street Sense fair odds: Single this well-meant shipper Sunday

Churchill Downs kicks off its lucrative fall meeting Sunday with a Stars of Tomorrow card, so-named because all 11 races, including a pair of stakes, are for 2-year-olds.

The Rags to Riches offers Kentucky Oaks points, 10-5-3-2-1 to the top five finishers, and the Grade 3 Street Sense has the same slate of Kentucky Derby points on the line. We focus on the latter contest because of a likely winner who also has the chance to offer some value.

No. 4 Moonlight is the 5-2 morning-line favorite and I agree the most likely winner. In fact I think he wins this race even more than the morning-line would indicate. I'm a little nervous that he'll be shorter than my fair odds of 2-1, but plan to lock something in as a multi-race single regardless.

No one else in here interests me at the prospective prices. Moonlight's maiden win last out at Aqueduct was the best race of this group by far. If he improves, he'll make odds-on look like a gift. If he runs the same race, then he's still the most likely winner. If he regresses, well, that's racing.

This is a race I have no interest in overthinking. Moonlight is a single for me in all multi-race bets. He is at least 2-1 going to the gate, he is worth a win bet.

Expanded Horse Racing Nation coverage of the fall meet is made possible in part by a sponsorship by Churchill Downs and the Kentucky Thoroughbred Fund.