Fair odds: Maiden offers value in Street Sense at Churchill Downs

The Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes is perfectly named as its titular character won both the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Kentucky Derby in 2006 and 2007 at Churchill Downs.

While its 10 entrants Sunday at 5:25 p.m. EDT were not ready for the top 2-year-old race, they still can take a 10-point step toward Kentucky Derby 2025 with an opening-day win going 1 1/16 miles on the main track.

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One of the better bets in the race is on Sovereignty, who would be securing not only 10 Derby points with a win but also his first career victory. Hopefully his lack of success on the win end to date helps his price. He is 5-1 on the morning line, but I have him as the most likely winner.

You’re probably wondering why.

He had no real chance on debut after breaking from the rail but ending up six wide. Still he closed strongly and showed some competitiveness. Next out he stretched to a one-turn mile and pressed a slower pace, lacking punch to get the win. Again, though, a competitive race.

Now Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott stretches this one out to two turns with go-to pilot Junior Alvarado retaining the mount. He can win this.

Liking the morning-line third choice means the morning-line favorites are likely underlays. Between Tiztastic and Comes a Time, I prefer the latter as he sat of the pace in his debut before fighting for the win late. Tiztastic was impressive in two turf wins at Kentucky Downs, but 3-1 favorite is just too light for a colt with such a discrepancy in speed ratings between surfaces.

From a long-shot perspective, either of the BB horses drawn inside, Bracket Buster or Baby Boat, could outrun his odds if overlooked in the betting. Bracket Buster broke his maiden in his two-turn debut, and Baby Boat closed to win a pair of races going a sharp 5 1/2 furlongs at Hawthorne Race Course.

Wagering wise, I’ll be looking to play Sovereignty to win if my fair odds of 7-2 are there. I also will play Bracket Buster and Baby Boat with Tiztastic, Comes a Time and Sovereignty in the exotics.