Stevens: 'Night and day' difference for a delayed Derby

With the 2020 Kentucky Derby shifting to Sept. 5, some traditions of a first Saturday in May will simply shift to the fall. As for the horses and race themselves?

"Like night and day," said Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens, a recent retiree who has taken on an analyst's role for the last year. "That’s when the 3-year-olds usually start running against the 4-year-olds."

Stevens, speaking this week with Horse Racing Nation, expects a major shakeup between now and then as far as Kentucky Derby contenders.

Some of the top on-schedule hopefuls will compete instead Saturday in split divisions of the Arkansas Derby (G1) -- among them the unbeaten Bob Baffert duo of Nadal and Charlatan; Tampa Bay Derby (G2) upsetter King Guillermo; and Wells Bayou, the wire-to-wire Louisiana Derby (G2) hero.

Tiz the Law, the presumed Kentucky Derby favorite had the race run Saturday, is awaiting his next assignment after a victory in the Florida Derby (G1).

"What we’re going to see Saturday in the Arkansas Derby and what we’ve already seen in the Florida Derby, Louisiana Derby and Tampa Bay Derby, these horses that look like huge contenders right now might not be one come September," Stevens said. "They might not be on the map."

The former jockey speaks as a three-time Derby winner: in 1988 with winning Colors, in 1995 with Thunder Gulch and 1997 aboard Silver Charm.

Typically, September is the time of year when the crop's best sophomores begin to challenge their elders. Last year, for instance, the Travers Stakes (G1) winner Code of Honor battled head and head with Vino Rosso in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) at Belmont Park on both colts' way to the Breeders' Cup Classic.

"In California before the lockdown, right at the turn of the year they were running 3-year-old fillies against older fillies and mares, as well as 3-year-old colts. They hadn’t really progressed yet."

Stevens expects horses born later in their crop will  benefit most from this Kentucky Derby delay.

"If you've got a late foal, as a 3-year-old it’s a huge benefit in maturity by the time they’re going to run in September," he said. "You’re going to see a different game.

"Different game, different players. This whole picture could and will change by September, I guarantee."

Going back to the Florida Derby hero, however, Stevens did mention one 3-year-old that he feels won't be hampered by the Derby's postponement.

"I’m excited to see Tiz the Law run," Stevens said. "Barclay (trainer Tagg) is not in any hurry with this horse. He’s a horse that I think is going to keep moving forward. I think it’s only going to help him."