Stephen Foster fair odds: DeRosa leans against favorites
An old-time saying around the track is that "Grade 1 horses win Grade 1 races," but I will look to buck that conventional wisdom in the Stephen Foster Stakes on Saturday at Churchill Downs.
The post-Kentucky Derby showpiece event of the spring-summer meet, the $1 million race for older horses attracted a blockbuster card featuring 2024 Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan, champion Breeders' Cup Classic winner Sierra Leone, Dubai World Cup (G1) winner Hit Show and the newly minted member of the Grade 1 club Mindframe, winner of the Churchill Downs Stakes last out.
Incredibly, the favorite for this race might not be among that quartet of Grade 1 winners. Hit Show's Brad Cox-trained stablemate First Mission figures to take plenty of money off consistently high speed figures and a last-out win in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2).
Even better for bettors is that a sixth horse, another non-Grade 1 winner, figures to be the best value. I could see Skippylongstocking as no less than fourth choice here and possibly even sixth choice behind all the others mentioned.
This senior member of this group, 6-year-old Skippylongstocking was super impressive winning the Hollywood Gold Cup (G2) last out. Overall, he seems to do his best running just off the pace rather than on it, and I envision that ideal trip for him in this nine-furlong contest.
Speaking of pace, there is plenty of it, which benefits Sierra Leone. His return, as disappointing as it was to lose at 3-10, was fine. And from a form-cycle standpoint there is no reason to think that future Hall of Fame trainer Chad Brown will not have this Gun Runner colt ready to improve in his second start as a 4-year-old.
It was awesome to see 2024 Derby winner Mystik Dan return to the winner's circle as a 4-year-old, but Ragozin says the Blame Stakes (G3) win was a step back from his lifetime best two back, and he is certain to get overbet off a win that may lead to further regression.
Hit Show ran the race of his life to win the Dubai World Cup, and although it is encouraging that Raging Torrent returned from winning the Godolphin Mile (G2) to win the Met Mile (G1), I'll let this one beat me at a likely suppressed price off that big win.
My wagering strategy will be to bet Skippylongstocking to win and key in trifectas with First Mission and Sierra Leone.