Stephen Foster fair odds: Which of the top choices to pick?

The Grade 1 Stephen Foster Stakes on Saturday at Churchill Downs attracted most of the big names from the Midwest region of the older male division, and it is one of the names who is not here that gives me confidence in my play.

Skippylongstocking defeated Highland Falls in the Oaklawn Handicap, and Highland Falls came back to win the Blame Stakes (G3) on June 1 at Churchill. Now Skippylongstocking returns in the Stephen Foster, and it is unlikely he will be favored because of the presence of Highland Falls' Brad Cox-trained stablemate First Mission.

First Mission has done little wrong in a 5-for-8 career. His only dud came when ninth at 14-5 in the Pegasus World Cup (G1), a race in which Skippylongstocking did not finish. He has won two consecutive stakes since and has shown an ability to race well from anywhere on the track.

With long shot Classic Causeway the only true speed of this nine-horse (before scratches) race, I'm keen to see what tactics jockey Florent Geroux aboard First Mission from post position 2 and Jose Ortiz aboard Skippylongstocking from post position 9 deploy. 

I have their talent levels pretty similar, so that makes playing Skippylongstocking at the longer price a no brainer. 

As seen using the Horse Racing Nation Track Trends Tool, nine furlongs at Churchill is a fair configuration, so I'm not concerned about the outside post. 

Being so short on the top two choices does not leave a lot of room for potential long-shot value, as I expect Disarm, Dreamline and Kingsbarns all to be short of my fair odds. I'm keen to single Skippylongstocking in the pick Ns.