Stephen Foster odds, analysis: Top older horses face off
The Grade 1, $1 million Stephen Foster, which will be run on Saturday at 1 1/8 miles at Churchill Downs, drew a field of seven horses from the older male dirt division. The Foster provides the winner with a spot in the Breeders' Cup Classic at Del Mar on Nov. 1.
The field includes six horses with more than $1 million in career earnings. Together they have 38 victories and a combined total of $25.8 million. There are four Grade 1 winners, and two of them were victorious in America’s most prestigious races, the Kentucky Derby and the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Five horses come to the 2025 Foster with a graded- or group-stakes win in their most recent start.
Here is a full-field analysis for the Stephen Foster with morning-line odds from the Horse Racing Nation staff. The race is scheduled for 6:03 p.m. EDT and is carded as race 11 of 12.
1. First Mission, 5-1. Street Sense – Brad Cox / Luis Saez– 12: 6-2-1 - $2,060,170. First Mission is back in top form this year as a 5-year-old. He returned in February following a layoff after finishing seventh in the Whitney (G1) at Saratoga. In the Razorback (G3) at Oaklawn he stalked the field in third and was part of a blanket finish just a neck behind the winner. In April he was back in the winner’s circle with a clear two-length margin to beat Skippylongstocking in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2). Last year First Mission set the pace in the Foster but he faded to fourth down the stretch. This will be his fourth try to get a Grade 1 victory. Others are preferred.
2. Mindframe, 5-2. Constitution – Todd Pletcher / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 6: 4-2-0 - $1,292,1600. Mindframe is the most lightly raced horse in the field. He did not make his first start until March last year as a 3-year-old. He won his first two races in a maiden at Gulfstream Park and an allowance at Oaklawn by combined margins of 21 lengths. Then he had almost identical trips where he stalked, got the lead and ended up second in the Belmont Stakes (G1) and the Haskell (G1). Mindframe was off for the rest of 2024 and came back to win the Gulfstream Park Mile (G2) in March and was last seen getting his first Grade 1 victory in the Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May. Top choice.
3. Skippylongstocking, 6-1. Exaggerator – Saffie Joseph Jr. / Jose Ortiz – 32: 11-3-7 - $3,661,425. Skippylongstocking just keeps rolling along. The now 6-year-old won two more graded stakes already this year in the Challenger (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs and last month in the Gold Cup (G2) at Santa Anita. He now has 11 career wins, eight in graded stakes, although he has not been able to get a Grade 1 victory in six tries. That includes a third in the 2024 Stephen Foster. He will face a formidable field in this year’s field, which seems an unlikely spot for a breakthrough win. Toss.
4. Sierra Leone, 2-1. Gun Runner – Chad Brown / Flavien Prat – 10: 4-3-3 - $6,058,000. Sierra Leone has yet to run a bad race in his career, which includes two wins on the Kentucky Derby trail and a loss to Mystik Dan by a nose on the first Saturday in May. Sierra Leone got his second Grade 1 victory in the Breeders’ Cup Classic in the best field of the year. His one start of 2025 was a third in the New Orleans Classic (G2). He has been training at Belmont Park and should be expected to be on the top of his game for the Foster. Win contender.
5. Mystik Dan, 5-1. Goldencents – Ken McPeek / Brian Hernandez Jr. – 13: 4-3-1 - $4,417,570. Mystik Dan was victorious in the Blame (G3) at the end of May and shed the unwanted title of a Kentucky Derby winner who had not won another race. He will face a significant challenge in this Grade 1 field in the older male dirt division. Toss.
6. Hit Show, 9-2. Candy Ride – Brad Cox / Florent Geroux – 18: 9-1-1 - $8,406,928. Hit Show became a Group 1 winner when he won the $12 million Dubai World Cup against a field of 11 that included Forever Young. That made him the leading money winner in the Foster field. Before that he had four graded-stakes victories going August 2024 to January of this year. Since turning 4 and racing against older horses, he won six of nine starts. Win contender.
7. Ashcroft, 30-1. Munnings – D. Wayne Lukas / Julien Leparoux – 12: 2-1-0 - $109,923. Ashcroft began his career with Wesley Ward and then ran for three other trainers. He won twice at Santa Anita, breaking his maiden and then winning an allowance. Three tries in stakes races could not produce a finish better than fifth. He was entered in the Foster by D. Wayne Lukas prior to his retirement. Toss.
Summary: The field of the 2025 Stephen Foster is small but select with several of the top older male dirt horses. On their best, Sierra Leone, Hit Show and Mindframe are the most likely choices to win the race, and there are excellent reasons for each of them to do that.
Sierra Leone won the Breeders’ Cup Classic in November, and his speed figures built up to produce a huge number on that day. He was third in his 2025 debut, but Chad Brown will have him ready to roll in the Foster.
Hit Show got a Group 1 victory and the big money when he won the Dubai World Cup. Brad Cox has him training smartly at Churchill Downs, where last seen he was third in the 2024 Clark (G2) and got moved to fifth by disqualification.
Mindframe became a Grade 1 winner in the Churchill Downs going seven furlongs on the first Saturday in May, which was probably an ideal way to prepare for the summer’s big races. Longer distances are not a problem as we saw last year with runner-up efforts in the Haskell (G1) and Belmont. Mindframe might be the horse in the field who still has room to get better and is not expected to be the favorite. Therefore, Mindframe is the top pick to win the Foster.