Stephen Foster odds, analysis: McPeek pair leads the way

The Grade 1, $1 million Stephen Foster, which will be run on Saturday at 1 1/8 miles at Ellis Park, drew a field of eight horses from the older male dirt division, led by a pair of recent graded stakes winners trained by Kenny McPeek.

The Stephen Foster provides the winner with a spot in the Breeders' Cup Classic at Santa Anita in November.

The Foster includes the first-place finishers from the recent Blame (G3), Alysheba (G2) and Oaklawn Handicap (G2), and they represent three of the six millionaires in the field. There are seven graded-stakes winners in the field. Three have a Grade 1 victory, and three scored in a Grade 2.

Here is a full-field analysis for the Foster with the morning line from the Horse Racing Nation staff. The race is scheduled for 4:26 p.m. EDT and is carded as race 10 of 11.

1. Proxy, 3-1 – Tapit – Michael Stidham / Joel Rosario – 16: 5-6-2 - $1,775,970. Proxy won the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) in April by a head against a field of seven using a stalking trip where he got pushed out six wide in the final turn. Last year he won the Clark (G1) and was second in the Stephen Foster (G2), which contributed to his $1.775 million in earnings. At the 1 1/8-mile distance, the Godolphin home-bred has seven finishes in the top three. Win contender.

2. Stilleto Boy, 5-1 – Shackleford – Ed Moger Jr. / Kent Desormeaux – 22: 4-4-9 - $1,807,175. Stilleto Boy has only top-three finishes in his last four starts, with a third in the Oaklawn after setting the pace and a win the Santa Anita Handicap (G1) with a stalking trip. This 5-year-old also was third in the rich Pegasus World Cup (G1) as a 45-1 long shot after a front-end trip. The TimeformUS pace projector has Stilleto Boy on the lead in race that does not have a lot of early speed. Use underneath.

3. Speed Bias, 10-1 – Uncle Mo – Ron Moquett / Luis Saez – 9: 2-4-1 - $250,965. This 4-year-old officially broke his maiden in his fourth start although he did cross the finish line in first in his second career start. Since then he picked up an allowance victory at Oaklawn and most recently missed a win in the Pimlico Special (G3) by a nose after racing in front. Trainer Ron Moquett has him in excellent form as he faces the toughest test in his career. Live long shot.

4. Rattle N Roll, 9-2 – Connect – Kenny McPeek / Brian Hernandez Jr. – 18: 8-1-2 - $1,501,141. Rattle N Roll was a Grade 1 winner in the Breeders’ Futurity as a 2-year-old but was out of form on the Kentucky Derby trail in 2022. He won six stakes races since, including three Grade 3s in his most recent starts at three tracks with closing moves at the Foster distance or longer. Jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. rode both Kenny McPeek trainees in their last races and opts to stay on Rattle N Roll. Win contender.

5. Smile Happy, 7-2 – Runhappy – Kenny McPeek / Corie Lanerie – 8: 4-2-1 - $1,019,890. Smile Happy began his career with two victories in Kentucky with a win in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) as a 2-year-old. A pair of seconds on the Derby trail led to an eighth-place finish in the run for the roses and that was the only time in his career that he did not hit the board. Now a 4-year-old, Smile Happy pressed the pace in the Alysheba (G2) on Derby weekend, drew off to win by two lengths and earned a 110 Beyer Speed Figure, which is the highest of the year for any horse running farther than a mile. Top choice.

6. West Will Power, 4-1 – Bernardini – Brad Cox / Flavien Prat – 16: 6-7-1 - $1,146,130. West Will Power has a preference to press the pace or be on the lead, which has led him to finish in the top three 14 of his 16 career starts. The last five were in graded stakes, with wins in the New Orleans (G2) and the Fayette (G2). In the Foster he is likely to be out front with Stilleto Boy. Flavien Prat will travel from New York to stay on board West Will Power for Brad Cox. Win contender.

7. Last Samurai, 10-1 – Malibu Moon – D. Wayne Lukas / Cristian Torres – 28: 6-5-4 - $2,128,964. Last Samurai is the leading earner in this field of wealthy runners. He won a pair of Grade 3 stakes at Oaklawn this winter before running second behind Proxy in the Oaklawn Handicap, but most recently he was fourth in the Alysheba. Cristian Torres, who was his rider in the two stakes victories, gets back on board. His best races this year were when he ran with Lasix, but he will not be able to do so in the Foster. Toss.

8. Happy American (12-1 – Runhappy – Neil Pessin / James Graham – 20: 5-1-4 - $486,401) Happy American won twice at Fair Grounds during the winter, first in the Tenacious and then in the Louisiana (G3). Both times he rallied from a closing position. But in his three most recent starts he broke slowly and ended up at the back of those fields, then the best he could do was third in the Blame (G3). Toss.

Summary: The 2023 Stephen Foster drew a field loaded with millionaires, graded-stakes winners and triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures. Horses like that are capable of winning a Grade 1 when they are at top of their game and get the right kind of trip.

Appropriately, the HRN morning line has those horses bunched closely together at odds of 3-1 to 5-1. That makes this a race where it is hard to pick a top choice but at the same time ensures that good betting value is available.

The two runners from the McPeek barn are in excellent form. Smile Happy and Rattle N Roll were graded-stakes winners as 2-year-olds, appeared on the Kentucky Derby trail and now have impressive victories in the older male handicap division. Smile Happy’s overall record points out his talent, and the win in the Alysheba indicates that he is in the best form of his career. With the chance to get odds of 7-2, Smile Happy is the top choice.