Stephen Foster 2020: Odds and analysis

The older male dirt horses take the stage in the 1 1/8-mile, $500,000 Grade 2 Stephen Foster at Churchill Downs on Saturday. In addition to the purse money, the winner will receive a “Win and You’re In” spot for the Breeders’ Cup Classic at Keeneland on Nov. 7.

Tom’s d’Etat, who is the only horse in the field of eight with a Grade 1 victory, is likely to be the favorite. Among the expected starters are three millionaires and five graded stakes winners.

Here is a full-field analysis of the Stephen Foster, which is slated as Race 10 of 11 with post time scheduled for 5:50 p.m. ET. Morning-line odds are projected by Horse Racing Nation.

Fearless [ML 8-1 – Ghostzapper – T. Pletcher /J. Velazquez – 5: 3-1-0 - $118,520] With only 5 career starts, this Todd Pletcher runner is by far the least experienced horse in this field of older male dirt horses. The 4-year-old is the winner of three allowance races with the most recent coming at Churchill Downs at the end of May. His one race in stakes company in the New Orleans Classic (G2) was marred by a bumpy trip in which he had to be checked around the 16th pole. John Velazquez travels south from New York to stay on board. Toss

Pirate’s Punch [ML 12-1 – Shanghai Bobby – G. Foster/M. Smith – 14: 4-2-4 - $197,751] Mike Smith gets on board this three-time allowance winner for the first time. The son of Shanghai Bobby prefers to be part of the early pace as was the case in his most recent victory at Oaklawn Park in April. He has had two tries in Grade 3 races and finished third both times – in the Mineshaft in February at Fair Grounds and last year in the Super Derby at Louisiana Downs. In this spot, “Big Money” Smith will not make a difference. Toss

Alkhaatam [ML 30-1 – Tapit – D. Peitz/D. Cannon – 15: 4-0-2 - $238,478] Just about three weeks ago, this Danny Peitz trainee won an allowance at Churchill Downs while stalking the pace in a field of nine. Last year, he ran 11th in the Stephen Foster and is likely to be the longshot in this year’s field. Toss

Multiplier [ML 10-1 – The Factor – P. Miller/T. Gaffalione – 27: 3-4-4 - $482,350] In terms of recency, Multiplier is known for his second-place finish in the 2020 Santa Anita Handicap (G1) when he ran a neck behind the winner Combatant. Although the Peter Miller runner has been facing quality competition, he has not won a race since May 2018. As a 3-year-old, he did win the Illinois Derby (G3) and then ran in the Preakness (G1) and the Belmont Stakes (G1). He was trained by Bill Mott until February of this year. It doesn’t look like he can compete with the top three horses in this field. Toss

Tom’s d’Etat [ML 2-1 – Smart Strike – A. Stall Jr./M. Mena – 17: 10-2-1 - $1,326,572] Tom’s d’ Etat is riding a three-race winning streak that dates back to the Fayette (G2) at Keeneland in October and includes the Clark (G1) at Churchill and the Oaklawn Mile in April. The 7-year-old also has a seven-race streak of 100+ Beyer Speed Figures while the rest of the field has only one of those between them. He runs well fresh and appears to be in the best form of his career. In the Oaklawn Mile he handled Improbable easily and that one went on to win the Hollywood Gold Cup (G1). The only concern might be that regular rider Joel Rosario is not riding him; instead Miguel Mena gets on board for the first time. Top Choice

By My Standards [ML 5-2 – Goldencents – B. Calhoun/G. Saez – 9: 5-2-1 - $1,281,910] This 4-year-old also enters the Foster on a three-race winning streak and is at the peak of his career. He has two convincing Grade 2 victories in the New Orleans Classic and the Oaklawn Handicap. Overall, he’s the winner of five of his last six starts, employing a stalking style to take control of races at the stretch call. He faces the toughest challenge of his career against Tom’s d’Etat. Use underneath

Silver Dust [ML 12-1 – Tapit – B. Calhoun/A. Beschizza – 28: 6-7-3 - $787,577] Silver Dust made some noise in the winter at Fair Grounds when he won two Grade 3s. When he had to face his stablemate By My Standards in the New Orleans Classic, the best he could do was fifth after setting the pace for the first six furlongs or so. Since then, he was third in the Blame behind Owendale after having the lead early in the stretch. Toss

Owendale [ML 7-2 – Into Mischief – B. Cox/F. Geroux – 15: 6-2-2 - $1,129,185] Trainer Brad Cox is winning races all over the country at a very high rate, and Owendale was an impressive late-running winner of the Blame at Churchill at the end of May. Before that, his closing move was not enough to catch Tom’s d’Etat in the Clark. A hot pace would help jockey Florent Geroux when he asks the son of Into Mischief to run. He’ll have to get past By My Standards and Tom’s d’Etat, who will make their moves earlier on in the race. Use underneath

Summary: It seems unlikely that a horse outside of Tom’s d’ Etat, Owendale and By My Standards will win the 2020 Stephen Foster. That trio has, by far, faced the toughest competition and has the best recent records.

By My Standards figures to be the closest to the pace of those three horses, and he'll likely be sitting right behind the early pace and will inherit the lead in the final turn or at the top of the stretch. Tom’s d’Etat will make the first run at him and could take charge of the race by the 16th poll. As a deep closer, Owendale will have to overtake By My Standards and then Tom’s d’Etat if he is going to win the Foster.

Tom’s d’ Etat is the probable winner. By My Standards may take the worst of the pace scenario and get passed by Owendale nearing the wire.

I’ll play just one exacta combination of Tom’s d’Etat over Owendale.