Steel Valley fair odds: Outside speed is key in Monday sprint

Ohio plays host to a lot of big races for both Thoroughbreds and standardbreds, but none is bigger than the Steel Valley Sprint among those less than a mile.

The $300,000 stakes for 3-year-olds going six furlongs is Monday at Mahoning Valley Race Course, and even with morning-line favorite Book'em Danno looking to take on elders in the Cigar Mile Handicap (G2) 12 days later, this is a deep group.

World Record inherits the program-favorite mantle off an allowance win at Keeneland. Given the 1-3 odds against seven overmatched rivals, he was supposed to win that. His Amsterdam Stakes win was impressive, and the pilot for these two wins, Eclipse Award contender Flavien Prat, ships to the Youngstown, Ohio, area for this.

Those are the positive signs. The negative is he will be a much shorter price now. While the Amsterdam performance likely wins this, neither of his previous two on numbers warrant this short of a price. I am going to try to beat him.

Like World Record, Valentine Candy is a stakes winner who stepped into the allowance ranks last out. That resulted in a win as well. Pace-wise he is capable of tracking World Record with Brisnet late-pace ratings that indicate an ability to kick on even after a fast pace. He is the pick.

Epic Ride was awesome in the Perryville, his first race back since ranging up in the Kentucky Derby before fading to 14th. It feels like 15-1 last time was the time vs. 4-1 morning line here and likely shorter with the scratch of Book'em Danno, but I do prefer Epic Ride to World Record, so there is some opportunity here.

There is an all-stakes Pick 5 ending with the Steel Valley, and I'd be thrilled to be live to both Epic Ride and Valentine Candy.