Steel Valley Sprint fair odds: For value, go outside to play

The Steel Valley Sprint has been a fount of big prices in its 10 runnings to date, and perhaps more fireworks are brewing for this year's renewal on Monday at Mahoning Valley.

Favorites are just 2-for-10 in Mahoning's marquee race with just one second-place finish and a four-race losing streak into this year. Throw in a pair of winners paying more than $100 and a pair of third-place finishers who were 48-1, and there is historical payoff potential to this race.

I like a 12-1 morning-line horse in this year's renewal, so perhaps big payouts away again. Faster Gator shipped in from the mid-Atlantic for the local prep for this, blitzing five overmatched rivals in a gate-to-wire effort that earned a 99 Brisnet Speed Rating, by far the best last-out number in the group.

Horses with local experience have outrun their odds in the Steel Valley, winning two of the ten editions with an additional pair of trifecta finishes despite no horse going off at less than 5-1 and one of those winners paying $119.20. 

There is a lot of speed in this race, so that is a concern given Faster Gator's style and outside post, but Taylor's Vision will scratch after having run Thursday at Churchill Downs, so that is at least one other speed threat out of the race while moving Faster Gator into post 11. I do not think we will get the full 12-to-1 on Faster Gator, especially given the known scratch, but I still expect his price to be right.

Guns Loaded flirted with the Triple Crown trail earlier this year, and after things went sideways following the Holy Bull Stakes against the likes of Burnham Square and Tappan Street, he received a freshening and came back strong sprinting at Churchill Downs. This is the most likely winner but I worry about price especially with the 124-pound impost.

Both my top selection and Souper Tuscan are contenders getting seven pounds from Guns Loaded. Souper Tuscan showed a nice dimension coming from off the pace last out in a 5 1/2-furlong dash. This is a big step up in class for him, but he is dangerous picking up Irad Ortiz Jr., who won the inaugural running of this race in 2015 aboard Lewys Vaporizer for trainer Larry Rivelli. He is looking to become the first jockey to win this race twice.

I am likely to fade all three of the far inside horses at the expected prices.