Springboard fair odds: Shipper takes unique Ky. Derby path

My Remington Springboard Mile selection has a lot in common with my Gun Runner Stakes selection.

In both cases, 2-year-old Yaupon colts were bought by Paradise Farms and turned over to trainer Mike Maker, Neither was bred in Kentucky, which makes their $250,000 price tags pretty hefty. Both won stakes restricted to their native states before shipping south to a Kentucky Derby points race on Saturday.

Ohio-bred Crown the Buckeye is the Gun Runner selection. Springboard Mile plaudits belong to Arctic Beast, an undefeated New York-bred who has won his three starts by a combined 13 lengths, including the New York Breeders' Futurity on Oct. 13 at Finger Lakes at 1-20 odds.

Head to Head: Can Spice Runner rebound in Springboard Mile?

What Arctic Beast has not done is race against open company or at two turns, and those are two tests he will face in the Springboard. But he seems up to the task, with the rail draw seemingly helping matters given his early zip. Ricardo Santana Jr. rode Arctic Beast to both stakes wins at Finger Lakes and stays aboard here for Maker. Santana won the 2019 Springboard aboard Shoplifting and is 5: 1-2-1 overall in the one-mile race.

Arctic Beast is the second choice at 4-1 on the morning line, but it would be disingenuous of me to suggest any wagering based on that line. This horse absolutely will be the favorite. Given my low 7-5 fair odds, there still could be value in the win pool, but one thing I will definitely be doing is singling this horse in all multi-race wagers.

Spice Runner is the 3-1 morning-line favorite, and I just don't see it. I have him as the 10-1 fourth choice on my fair odds. Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen has won this race four times with four jockeys, and Spice Runner would make 5-for-5 with Stewart Elliott slated to ride. But things have not gone well for the Gun Runner colt since winning the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes. I am playing him to be off the board if he takes anywhere near the money expected based on the morning line.

Royalamerican is my favored long shot at 12-1 morning line versus a 6-1 fair-odds marker. This Oklahoma-bred has a stakes win, albeit against fellow Sooners, at the track and distance. And he figures to be the beneficiary if things collapse up front, as our top pick clearly has speed but possibly others will join.

Again, I want to use Arctic Beast only in multi-race wagers, but am keen to see what this board looks like come 11:30 p.m. EST on Saturday. There should be inter-race exotic opportunity with Spice Runner a very likely underlay.