Springboard Mile fair odds: This Iowa-bred can beat the favorite

Aaron Kennedy, Toby Joseph and Doug Anderson spent big money for an Iowa-bred, and their investment has already paid off.

The trio went to $150,000 in May at Fasig-Tipton Midlantic sale of 2-year-olds, and not only has the Maximus Mischief colt now known as Glengarry already earned that price and more, it also is on the Kentucky Derby trail.

No. 5 Glengarry is the 7-2 third choice in the $300,000 Remington Springboard Mile on Friday at Remington Park, but he is the most likely winner of the one-mile raced based on my handicapping. I give him a 5-2 chance to defeat his eight rivals, with morning-line favorite no. 8 Otto the Conqueror at 7-2 on my fair odds line and no. 6 Raging Torrent at 5-1.

Given that Otto the Conqueror and Raging Torrent are 5-2 and 3-1, respectively, on the morning line, it is clear that Glengarry is the wagering opportunity of this race. And why not? He has done nothing wrong in a three-start career with three wins by a combined 18 1/4 lengths. The first two of those came at Prairie Meadows in his native Iowa, but he handled open stakes company with aplomb at Keeneland with Luis Saez picking up the mount in Lexington and staying aboard for this Oklahoma City tilt.

From a long-shot perspective, no. 7 Rhino Runner is interesting considering he has a win at this course and distance last out. Although that came in gate-to-wire fashion, the early part of that race was slow. If Rhino Runner runs that race mid-pack and still shows ability to accelerate late, as with his 93 Brisnet Late Pace Rating last out, then he could get up for a piece.

Wagering-wise, I'll bet Glengarry to win and key with Rhino Runner. I'll also play Rhino Runner with 5, 6, 8. 

A special all-stakes Pick 5 begins in race 6 and concludes with the Springboard Mile. Glengarry is a strong single to end the sequence.