Spinster Stakes fair odds: Close call, but Nest looks best again

When Keeneland morning-line oddsmaker Nick Tammaro shared his struggle with making the morning line for the Grade 1, $600,000 Spinster Stakes on Sunday, I admit I was incredulous.

It seemed straightforward to me that Idiomatic would be favored over Nest after the former got the better of the latter last out, but after actually handicapping the race, I'm probably more confused about it than Nick was.

For what it's worth, Nick has Nest favored at 6-5 and Idiomatic right there at 7-5. Horse Racing Nation data has Idiomatic at even money or 6-5 and Nest at 7-5 But from a fair-odds standpoint Nest is a slightly more likely winner.

Regardless, though, these are all razor-thin margins between the top two, and I agree: slightly favoring Nest at 7-5 with Idiomatic at 3-2. And then it's a long way to my third pick, Le Da Vida at 9-1.

This dynamic makes it a tough race to bet. From a pick standpoint, I'm willing to lean on Nest, as I think the allure of Idiomatic's speed will attract more money her way, and if people are uncomfortable singling her then they're going to use both the superstars. That creates opportunity in zeroing in on Nest if able to get to tougher-to-find horses in other legs.

Either way, kudos to the connections of both Curlin fillies for throwing down here ahead of the Breeders' Cup Distaff on Nov. 4 at Santa Anita Park.