Spinaway fair odds: Go outside for the inside track to value

There is no greater example of putting the speed-is-class theory to the test than late summer-early fall 2-year-old stakes races.

It is in these types of races that you most often find a mix of only maiden winners taking on stakes winners. And so it goes with the Spinaway Stakes on Saturday at Saratoga, where The Queens M G, a two-time stakes winner at this meeting, meets flashy maiden winners.

Chief among them for me are Quietside and Bellacose. I ran the stats on outside posts in relatively full seven-furlong races on the Saratoga main track and found no concerns with leaning on these two from that perspective.

I have Quietside as the most likely winner of this race on the strength of her best-in-field Ragozin figure on debut when she drew off at Saratoga on Aug. 4 to win by 6 1/4 lengths. But Bellacose might be the better value as she was similarly impressive, albeit against fellow New York-breds. Both ran similar Brisnet Pace Ratings throughout their races, but Quietside did it at six furlongs versus 5 1/2 furlongs and took more money.

The Queens M G certainly fits, but I have to think she'll be overbet off the two stakes wins, especially considering her last win was a small regression on Ragozin. That's not to say she'll continue to regress, but this is a quick turnaround to expect a career best, which is what it would take to win if either Quietside or Bellacose repeat.

Strong State ran well second out to win gate-to-wire, but the Brisnet Pace Ratings have her slightly slower early versus the two outside horses, so she's a play only if she gets really overlooked here.

Unless new owner John Stewart's Resolute Racing goes crazy betting his new purchase, I expect Bellacose to be the value here. A win bet and keyed with Quietside and possibly 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9 is on the table, depending on their odds.