Speed figures: Sovereignty earns top mark in Whitney win

Photo: Scott Serio / Eclipse Sportswire

Sovereignty led all performers with a 136 Horse Racing Nation speed figure at Saratoga in the Whitney S. The 4-year-old colt by Into Mischief captured the 1 1/8-mile dirt stakes race at 2-1 odds, winning by 4 3/4 lengths. This marked his seventh career victory in his 12th start.

War Officer earned a 131 HRN speed figure at Colonial Downs in a 1 1/4-mile turf allowance. The 6-year-old gelding by War Front won in dominant fashion by 7 1/2 lengths at 2-1 odds, recording his fourth career win from 22 starts. His top sibling Full Count Felicia is a Grade 1 winner who has earned $812,000.

Glacius completed the top three with a 127 HRN speed figure at Saratoga in the Saratoga Derby S. Presented by Qatar Racing. The 3-year-old colt by Too Darn Hot captured the 1 3/16-mile turf stakes at 9-1 odds, earning his second career win from six starts.

Saturday's top 10 speed figures

HRN Horse Sire Age/
Sex
Race Distance
136 Sovereignty Into Mischief 4C SAR 12 1 1/8 dirt
131 War Officer War Front 6G CNL 6 1 1/4 turf
127 Glacius Too Darn Hot 3C SAR 11 1 3/16 turf
124 Explora Blame 3F SAR 9 7f dirt
121 San Siro Classic Empire 5G SAR 3 1 1/8 dirt
121 Hannah Buckle Bated Breath 5M DMR 2 1 mile turf
121 Lamirada Army Mule 2F WO 5 6f synthetic
120 Classic Move Classic Empire 3F WO 6 6f synthetic
119 Big City City of Light 5H ELP 3 6f dirt
118 Matt At Five Tamarando 3G DMR 9 6f dirt

Fastest maiden winners

Lamirada posted the day's highest figure among maiden winners with a 121 HRN speed figure at Woodbine in a six-furlong synthetic maiden special weight, winning in dominant fashion by 11 3/4 lengths. The 2-year-old filly by Army Mule went off at 8-5 odds in her debut. She is out of Sister Nova, a Verrazano mare who earned $78,000, and her top sibling Notorious Gangster by Classic Empire has earned $370,000.

Gaudreau earned a 116 HRN speed figure at Saratoga in a 6 1/2-furlong dirt maiden special weight. The 2-year-old colt by Nyquist won at 2-1 odds in his debut. He is out of Free Cover, a Congrats mare who earned $180,000, and his top sibling Undercover Girl has earned $79,000.

Vaporetti rounded out the top three maiden winners with a 117 HRN speed figure at Ellis Park in a 1 1/16-mile turf maiden special weight. The 3-year-old colt by Not This Time won at 7-1 odds in his third career start. He is out of Lido, a Street Cry mare who earned $211,000 and was Grade 3 placed.

Saturday's top maiden winners

HRN Horse Sire Age/
Sex
Race Distance
121 Lamirada Army Mule 2F WO 5 6f synthetic
117 Vaporetti Not This Time 3C ELP 9 1 1/16 turf
116 Gaudreau Nyquist 2C SAR 1 6 1/2f dirt
113 Daddy's the Boss Frac Daddy 3F WO 11 6 1/2f synthetic
113 Summer Starlet City of Light 2F SAR 6 6 1/2f dirt
112 Non Domicile Promises Fulfilled 4G DMR 10 1 mile turf
111 Caribbean Life Life Is Good 2C ELP 5 7f dirt
110 Path To Power Time Test 3G DMR 6 1 mile turf
109 Fleury Practical Joke 3F WO 8 6f synthetic
108 Diamond Knife Violence 3G CNL 3 6f dirt

About HRN speed figures

HRN speed figures are AI-generated using HRN's proprietary machine-learning algorithms. Although they involve less human input than other speed figures, we see that as a plus as human adjustments often knock down surprisingly good performances to match expectations. HRN speed figures were launched in December 2024, and our expectation is also that the AI-generated speed figures will continuously get better over time.

The HRN speed figure scale goes from 1 to 160. Part of the reason for this higher scale is this helps us avoid assigning a speed figure of zero. For some products, in weaker races, half the field or more may get a speed figure of zero, which leads to inaccuracy and defeats the purpose of speed figures.

Because the HRN speed figures are based on machine learning, as we improve our models we can compute the numbers historically. 

Using the top last-race speed figure as a benchmark, here are stats from 2021 to 2024 for HRN and other speed-figure providers:

Top HRN figure 26.2% winners

Top Beyer figure 28.1% winners

Top TimeformUS figure 28.4% winners

Although all HRN speed figures are published on individual horse profile pages on a weekly basis, the daily reports are focused on the top and medium-tier tracks, which represent the majority of top speed figures.

Note: For the fastest maiden winners mentioned, all dam and sibling earnings are based on North American starts only.

Read More

The best race on the board this week needs a passport. The rest of the continent supplies the...
White Abarrio , a four-time Grade 1 winner, has been retired at age 7. He will join Tapit,...
Forget the rematch, racing fans want the first match.  When Horse of the Year Sovereignty began his 4-year-old...
Ted Noffey worked Monday morning for the first time since January, breezing three furlongs at Saratoga in 38.2...
No Bad Beats led all performers Sunday with a 135 Horse Racing Nation speed figure at Del Mar...