Speed figures: Who ran the fastest on Saturday?

Photo: Woodbine / Michael Burns

Cairo Surprise led all performers with a 140 Horse Racing Nation speed figure at Monmouth Park in the seventh race. The 3-year-old gelding by Cairo Prince captured a 5 1/2-furlong dirt allowance at 1-9 odds in a dominant win by 9 1/4 lengths. This marked his third career victory in his seventh start.

Sabertooth earned a 119 HRN speed figure at Santa Anita in a 1 1/8-mile turf allowance optional claimer. The 4-year-old colt by Grazen won at 8-5 odds, recording his second career win from 11 starts.

Little Teddy completed the top three with a 119 HRN speed figure at Woodbine in a five-furlong synthetic allowance optional claimer. The 5-year-old horse by Frac Daddy scored at 7-5 odds, securing his eighth career win from 16 starts.

Saturday's top 10 speed figures

HRN Horse Sire Age Race Distance
140 Cairo Surprise Cairo Prince 3G MTH 7 5 1/2f dirt
119 Sabertooth Grazen 4C SA 7 1 1/8 turf
119 Little Teddy Frac Daddy 5M WO 8 5f syn
118 Home for a Rest Souper Speedy 5M WO 7 5 1/2f syn
118 Irish Maxima Maximus Mischief 5M BAQ 7 1 mile dirt
117 Skyro Verrazano 8G CD 4 1 mile dirt
116 Growth Equity Nyquist 3C BAQ 9 1 1/8 dirt
115 Ever Dangerous Kitten's Joy 9G WO 9 1 1/16 syn
114 Mon Reve Mitole 3F MTH 8 6f dirt
114 Doroteo Bolt d'Oro 4G MTH 6 6f dirt

Fastest maiden winners

Mon Reve posted the day's highest maiden winner figure with a 114 HRN speed figure at Monmouth Park in a dominant win by 8 1/4 lengths. The 3-year-old filly by Mitole captured a six-furlong dirt maiden special weight at 3-1 odds in her second career start. She is out of Spring Dance, a Dance With Ravens mare who earned $200,000, with her top sibling Bracket Buster winning a Grade 3 and earning $793,000.

Sammy C Note impressed with a 113 HRN figure at Belmont at Aqueduct in his sixth career start. The 4-year-old gelding by Good Samaritan won a six-furlong turf maiden special weight at 8-1 odds. His dam Bargaining Table by Brother Derek earned $401,000 during her racing career.

Velocita earned a 110 HRN speed figure at Woodbine in her third career start. The 3-year-old filly by Old Forester finished a five-furlong synthetic maiden optional claimer at 43-1 odds. Her dam High Tee by El Corredor earned $180,000.

Saturday's top maiden winners

HRN Horse Sire Age Race Distance
114 Mon Reve Mitole 3F MTH 8 6f dirt
113 Sammy C Note Good Samaritan 4G BAQ 11 6f turf
110 Velocita Old Forester 3F WO 1 5f syn
110 Christa McAuliffe Grazen 3F SA 6 6f dirt
107 Supercharger Constitution 3C CD 5 1 1/8 turf
106 Tanya's Momentum Uncle Mo 3F CD 11 7f dirt
104 Rochester Street Sense 3C CD 6 6 1/2f dirt
104 Karley B Girvin 4F BAQ 1 6f dirt
102 Confidentiality Complexity 3F SA 3 6f turf
100 Clean Winner Charlatan 3F MTH 4 6f dirt

About HRN speed figures

HRN speed figures are AI-generated using HRN's proprietary machine-learning algorithms. Although they involve less human input than other speed figures, we see that as a plus as human adjustments often knock down surprisingly good performances to match expectations. HRN speed figures were launched in December 2024, and our expectation is also that the AI-generated speed figures will continuously get better over time.

The HRN speed figure scale goes from 1 to 160. Part of the reason for this higher scale is this helps us avoid assigning a speed figure of zero. For some products, in weaker races, half the field or more may get a speed figure of zero, which leads to inaccuracy and defeats the purpose of speed figures.

Because the HRN speed figures are based on machine learning, as we improve our models we can compute the numbers historically. 

Using the top last-race speed figure as a benchmark, here are stats from 2021 to 2024 for HRN and other speed-figure providers:

Top HRN figure 26.2% winners

Top Beyer figure 28.1% winners

Top TimeformUS figure 28.4% winners

Although all HRN speed figures are published on individual horse profile pages on a weekly basis, the daily reports are focused on the top and medium-tier tracks, which represent the majority of top speed figures.

Note: For the fastest maiden winners mentioned, all dam and sibling earnings are based on North American starts only.

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