Speed figures: Saratoga winners have Sunday's best
Then, a 4-year-old colt by Not This Time, delivered Sunday's top performance with an impressive 148 Horse Racing Nation speed figure at Saratoga. The Philip Antonacci trainee prevailed at even-money odds in a nine-furlong turf allowance. This marked his second career victory in his sixth lifetime start.
Cruden Bay earned a 135 HRN speed figure at Woodbine, winning the Connaught Cup Stakes at 9-1 odds in a seven-furlong turf contest. The 7-year-old gelding by Big Screen recorded his eighth career win from 24 lifetime starts.
David of Athens secured a 133 HRN speed figure at Ellis Park in an eight-furlong dirt allowance race. The 3-year-old colt by Nyquist went off as the 1-5 favorite and secured his second career win in just his third career start.
Top 10 Sunday figures
| HRN | Horse | Sire | Age | Race | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 148 | Then | Not This Time | 4C | SAR 3 | 9f turf |
| 135 | Cruden Bay | Big Screen | 7G | WO 7 | 7f turf |
| 133 | David of Athens | Nyquist | 3C | ELP 6 | 1 mile dirt |
| 133 | Banishing | Ghostzapper | 5G | ELP 8 | 6 1/2f dirt |
| 133 | Halina's Forte | Mitole | 4F | SAR 9 | 6f dirt |
| 127 | Factorbella | The Factor | 4F | MTH 5 | 6f dirt |
| 127 | Sunday's Well | Gamble's Exchange | 3G | WO 2 | 6f synthetic |
| 126 | Ready for Shirl | More Than Ready | 4F | WO 6 | 9f turf |
| 125 | See Through It | Curlin to Mischief | 8G | DMR 10 | 6 1/2f dirt |
| 125 | Belouni | Fast Company | 5G | SAR 7 | 1 1/16 miles turf |
Maiden winners show promise
Makes Sense recorded the day's highest figure among maiden winners with a 116 HRN speed figure at Saratoga. The 3-year-old colt by Street Sense dominated a nine-furlong dirt maiden claiming event as the 6-5 favorite in his fourth career start. He is out of Pure Poison, a daughter of Honor Code.
Edge of Mali earned a 113 HRN speed figure in an eight-furlong turf maiden special weight at Del Mar. The 3-year-old filly by Sands of Mali won at 3-5 odds in her third career start. She is out of Edge of Town, a daughter of Showcasing.
Lottery Win secured a 113 HRN speed figure at Ellis Park in a six-furlong dirt maiden claiming race. The 3-year-old colt by Maclean's Music finished at nearly 5-1 odds in his sixth career start. He is out of Rare Article, a daughter of Ghostzapper.
Top maiden winners
| HRN | Horse | Sire | Age | Race | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 116 | Makes Sense | Street Sense | 3C | SAR 1 | 9f dirt |
| 113 | Edge of Mali | Sands of Mali | 3F | DMR 1 | 1 mile turf |
| 113 | Lottery Win | Maclean's Music | 3C | ELP 1 | 6f dirt |
| 82 | To a Flame | Justify | 2F | ELP 5 | 1 mile dirt |
| 80 | Gold Stamp | Handsome Mike | 3F | MTH 1 | 5 1/2f turf |
| 70 | Diciassette | Mitole | 2C | GP 1 | 5f dirt |
| 45 | Metodo | Gone Astray | 2C | GP 3 | 5 1/2f dirt |
About HRN speed figures
HRN speed figures are AI-generated using HRN's proprietary machine-learning algorithms. Although they involve less human input than other speed figures, we see that as a plus as human adjustments often knock down surprisingly good performances to match expectations. HRN speed figures were launched in December 2024, and our expectation is also that the AI-generated speed figures will continously get better over time.
The HRN speed figure scale goes from 1 to 160. Part of the reason for this higher scale is this helps us avoid assigning a speed figure of zero. For some products, in weaker races, half the field or more may get a speed figure of zero, which leads to inaccuracy and defeats the purpose of speed figures.
Because the HRN speed figures are based on machine learning, as we improve our models we can compute the numbers historically.
Using the top last-race speed figure as a benchmark, here are stats from 2021 to 2024 for HRN and other speed-figure providers:
• Top HRN figure 26.2% winners
• Top Beyer figure 28.1% winners
• Top TimeformUS figure 28.4% winners
Although all HRN speed figures are published on individual horse profile pages on a weekly basis, the daily reports are focused on the top and medium-tier tracks, which represent the majority of top speed figures.