Speed figures: Saratoga stakes winner tops Wednesday rankings

Photo: NYRA / Chelsea Durand

My Mane Squeeze produced Wednesday's highest speed figure with a remarkable 136 Horse Racing Nation speed figure at Saratoga. The 4-year-old filly by Audible captured the Johnstone Stakes at 6-5 odds going seven furlongs on dirt. This marked her seventh career victory in her 17th lifetime start.

Haileysfirstnotion and Corruption tied for the second-highest figures of the day, each posting 119 HRN speed figures in their respective races. Haileysfirstnotion, a 4-year-old gelding by Great Notion, won a six-furlong allowance optional claiming race at Delaware Park as the 3-5 favorite, securing his fifth career win from nine starts.

Corruption, a 4-year-old gelding by Medaglia d'Oro, prevailed at 3-5 odds in an 1 3/8-mile allowance optional claimer on turf at Saratoga. The victory was his fifth career win from nine lifetime starts.

Top 10 Wednesday figures

HRN Horse Sire Age Race Distance
136 My Mane Squeeze Audible 4F SAR 8 7f dirt
119 Haileysfirstnotion Great Notion 4G DEL 8 6f dirt
119 Corruption Medaglia d'Oro 4G SAR 4 1 3/8 turf
118 Blue Kingdom First Mondays 4G CNL 4 7f dirt
114 Soze Maximus Mischief 4G DEL 6 5 1/2f dirt
108 Compass Fire Midshipman 5M DEL 2 6f dirt
107 Chicory Blaze Alternation 3C IND 8 1 1/16 dirt
107 Racing Colors Race Day 6M SAR 2 7f dirt
105 Mitch Mitole 3G IND 4 1 mile dirt
103 Daddy Yankee American Freedom 3G CNL 2 6f dirt

Maiden winners showcase potential

V Cruizer delivered Wednesday's top maiden performance with a 99 HRN speed figure at Saratoga. The 3-year-old colt by Violence won a six-furlong dirt maiden claiming race at 8-1 odds in his career debut. He is out of Street Cruizer, a daughter of Quality Road, whose notable offspring include Hurts So Bad, an earner of $111,000.

White Blue secured a 95 HRN speed figure at Colonial Downs in a 1 1/16-mile turf maiden claiming race. The 3-year-old gelding by Catholic Boy prevailed at 5-2 odds in his ninth career start. His dam Vexed is a Grade 2 winner with earnings of $144,000, who has also produced Debate, an earner of $197,000.

Royal Suite earned a 94 HRN speed figure at Colonial Downs in a 1 1/16-mile turf maiden special weight. The 3-year-old filly by Tiz the Law won at 5-2 odds in her fifth career start. Her dam Princess Mariah produced Lovely Princess, a Grade 3-placed runner with earnings of $418,000.

Top maiden winners

HRN Horse Sire Age Race Distance
99 V Cruizer Violence 3C SAR 5 6f dirt
95 White Blue Catholic Boy 3G CNL 1 1 1/16 turf
94 Royal Suite Tiz the Law 3F CNL 6 1 1/16 turf
90 Sunset Sizzle McKinzie 3F SAR 3 6f dirt
87 Starry Night Justify 3F CNL 5 1 1/8 turf
85 Dirty Gold Flameaway 4F DEL 3 1 1/16 turf
81 Snow Face Princess Midshipman 2F SAR 6 5 1/2f turf
80 McLaughlin Uncle Mo 3F IND 5 1 mile turf
77 Doubting Thomas Caravaggio 2C CNL 3 5 1/2f turf
71 Young Angus The Player 2G IND 1 5f dirt

About HRN speed figures

HRN speed figures are AI-generated using HRN's proprietary machine-learning algorithms. Although they involve less human input than other speed figures, we see that as a plus as human adjustments often knock down surprisingly good performances to match expectations. HRN speed figures were launched in December 2024, and our expectation is also that the AI-generated speed figures will continously get better over time.

The HRN speed figure scale goes from 1 to 160. Part of the reason for this higher scale is this helps us avoid assigning a speed figure of zero. For some products, in weaker races, half the field or more may get a speed figure of zero, which leads to inaccuracy and defeats the purpose of speed figures.

Because the HRN speed figures are based on machine learning, as we improve our models we can compute the numbers historically. 

Using the top last-race speed figure as a benchmark, here are stats from 2021 to 2024 for HRN and other speed-figure providers:

• Top HRN figure 26.2% winners

• Top Beyer figure 28.1% winners

• Top TimeformUS figure 28.4% winners

Although all HRN speed figures are published on individual horse profile pages on a weekly basis, the daily reports are focused on the top and medium-tier tracks, which represent the majority of top speed figures.

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