Speed figures: Maiden winner leads day's fastest runners

Photo: Coady

On the Level posted Wednesday's highest Horse Racing Nation speed figure, earning a 126 in his victory in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Delaware Park. A 3-year-old by Classic Empire, he tracked the early pace, moved to the lead past the five-sixteenths, and drew off to win by 3 1/4 lengths. Sent off at 1.1-1 odds, the Keri Brion trainee was the narrow second choice in the field of six.

Army Gal earned a 125 HRN speed figure in Thursday's third race at Belmont at Aqueduct, a second-level New York-bred allowance at 6 1/2 furlongs on dirt. Sent off at 3-1 odds, she stalked the pace and finished best in the lane to win by 1 3/4 lengths. Trained by Linda Rice, the 3-year-old Army Mule filly won for the third time in seven starts, all of which have come this year.

Colonial Rose completed the top three with a 119 HRN speed figure at Churchill Downs. Sent off the odds-on favorite in a one-mile starter allowance on the dirt, the 4-year-old daughter of Constitution tracked the pace and took command down the lane to win by 5 3/4. Trained by Norm Casse, Colonial Rose won for the third time in 13 starts and the second in five outings this year.

Thursday's top 10 speed figures

HRN Horse Sire Age Race Distance
126 On the Level Classic Empire 3C DEL 6 6f dirt
125 Army Gal Army Mule 3F BAQ 3 6 1/2f dirt
119 Colonial Rose Constitution 4F CD 3 1 mile dirt
118 Jersey Pearl Bee Jersey 5M CD 7 6 1/2f dirt
117 Wish Carefully Mitole 4G CNL 10 1 1/16 turf
117 Passage East Audible 3F CNL 5 7f dirt
116 Takeschargesmiling Take Charge Indy 4G BAQ 6 7f dirt
115 Show Time Into Mischief 6G CD 8 6f dirt
115 Air of Defiance Quality Road 4G CD 1 1 mile dirt
109 Voice From Above Audible 4F WO 3 7f synthetic

Fastest maiden winners

On the Level, who earned the day's HRN top speed figure with a 126, did so in a six-furlong maiden sprint at Delaware Park. The Keri Brion trainee graduated in his second career start, and his first this year. A 3-year-old son of Classic Empire, she is out of the More Than Ready mare Siena Grace, who earned $43,950 in her two-win career. On the Level's only sibling to race, the Orb gelding Fast Felix, won twice in 26 starts and earned $46,853.

Wish Carefully earned a 117 HRN speed figure when breaking his maiden Thursday at Colonial Downs, getting off the mark in his 15th career start. Trained by Michelle Lovell, he led at every call of the 1 1/16-mile turf race and held off favored Uncle's Gold to win by three quarters of a length. The 4-year-old Mitole gelding is out of the winning Tiznow mare Forgiveness, a half-sister to Grade 3 winner and Grade 1-placed Cash No Credit. His $96,053 in earnings make him his dam's top earner so far.

A Fine Chardonnay earned a 108 HRN speed figure for her debut win at Churchill Downs on Thursday. Trained by Ian Wilkes, she was ignored by bettors at 45-1 odds, but rallied up the inside and kicked away late to win the six-furlong maiden special weight by two lengths. A 2-year-old daughter of Maclean's Music, she is out of the winning Bernardini mare Andele. Her top-earning sibling so far is Melle Mel, a 3-year-old Liam's Map filly who has won twice and earned $67,918 so far.

Thursday's top maiden winners

HRN Horse Sire Age Race Distance
126 On the Level Classic Empire 3C DEL 6 6f dirt
117 Wish Carefully Mitole 4G CNL 10 1 1/16 turf
108 A Fine Chardonnay Maclean's Music 2F CD 6 6f dirt
108 Big Cuddle Great Notion 2C DEL 1 5 1/2f dirt
101 Memorized Tapit 2F BAQ 1 1 1/16 turf
101 Final Accord War of Will 2F WO 1 5f turf
97 V Inspired V. E. Day 4F CNL 12 1 1/16 turf
97 Souper Sporty Souper Speedy 2F WO 5 7f synthetic
93 Miss Strawberry Prime Attraction 3F WO 2 6 1/2f synthetic
92 Judith Speightstown 3F CNL 7 5 1/2f turf

About HRN speed figures

HRN speed figures are AI-generated using HRN's proprietary machine-learning algorithms. Although they involve less human input than other speed figures, we see that as a plus as human adjustments often knock down surprisingly good performances to match expectations. HRN speed figures were launched in December 2024, and our expectation is also that the AI-generated speed figures will continuously get better over time.

The HRN speed figure scale goes from 1 to 160. Part of the reason for this higher scale is this helps us avoid assigning a speed figure of zero. For some products, in weaker races, half the field or more may get a speed figure of zero, which leads to inaccuracy and defeats the purpose of speed figures.

Because the HRN speed figures are based on machine learning, as we improve our models we can compute the numbers historically. 

Using the top last-race speed figure as a benchmark, here are stats from 2021 to 2024 for HRN and other speed-figure providers:

Top HRN figure, 26.2% winners

Top Beyer figure, 28.1% winners

Top TimeformUS figure, 28.4% winners

Although all HRN speed figures are published on individual horse profile pages on a weekly basis, the daily reports are focused on the top and medium-tier tracks, which represent the majority of top speed figures.

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