Speed figures: Maiden winner leads day's fastest runners
On the Level posted Wednesday's highest Horse Racing Nation speed figure, earning a 126 in his victory in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Delaware Park. A 3-year-old by Classic Empire, he tracked the early pace, moved to the lead past the five-sixteenths, and drew off to win by 3 1/4 lengths. Sent off at 1.1-1 odds, the Keri Brion trainee was the narrow second choice in the field of six.
Army Gal earned a 125 HRN speed figure in Thursday's third race at Belmont at Aqueduct, a second-level New York-bred allowance at 6 1/2 furlongs on dirt. Sent off at 3-1 odds, she stalked the pace and finished best in the lane to win by 1 3/4 lengths. Trained by Linda Rice, the 3-year-old Army Mule filly won for the third time in seven starts, all of which have come this year.
Colonial Rose completed the top three with a 119 HRN speed figure at Churchill Downs. Sent off the odds-on favorite in a one-mile starter allowance on the dirt, the 4-year-old daughter of Constitution tracked the pace and took command down the lane to win by 5 3/4. Trained by Norm Casse, Colonial Rose won for the third time in 13 starts and the second in five outings this year.
Thursday's top 10 speed figures
| HRN | Horse | Sire | Age | Race | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 126 | On the Level | Classic Empire | 3C | DEL 6 | 6f dirt |
| 125 | Army Gal | Army Mule | 3F | BAQ 3 | 6 1/2f dirt |
| 119 | Colonial Rose | Constitution | 4F | CD 3 | 1 mile dirt |
| 118 | Jersey Pearl | Bee Jersey | 5M | CD 7 | 6 1/2f dirt |
| 117 | Wish Carefully | Mitole | 4G | CNL 10 | 1 1/16 turf |
| 117 | Passage East | Audible | 3F | CNL 5 | 7f dirt |
| 116 | Takeschargesmiling | Take Charge Indy | 4G | BAQ 6 | 7f dirt |
| 115 | Show Time | Into Mischief | 6G | CD 8 | 6f dirt |
| 115 | Air of Defiance | Quality Road | 4G | CD 1 | 1 mile dirt |
| 109 | Voice From Above | Audible | 4F | WO 3 | 7f synthetic |
Fastest maiden winners
On the Level, who earned the day's HRN top speed figure with a 126, did so in a six-furlong maiden sprint at Delaware Park. The Keri Brion trainee graduated in his second career start, and his first this year. A 3-year-old son of Classic Empire, she is out of the More Than Ready mare Siena Grace, who earned $43,950 in her two-win career. On the Level's only sibling to race, the Orb gelding Fast Felix, won twice in 26 starts and earned $46,853.
Wish Carefully earned a 117 HRN speed figure when breaking his maiden Thursday at Colonial Downs, getting off the mark in his 15th career start. Trained by Michelle Lovell, he led at every call of the 1 1/16-mile turf race and held off favored Uncle's Gold to win by three quarters of a length. The 4-year-old Mitole gelding is out of the winning Tiznow mare Forgiveness, a half-sister to Grade 3 winner and Grade 1-placed Cash No Credit. His $96,053 in earnings make him his dam's top earner so far.
A Fine Chardonnay earned a 108 HRN speed figure for her debut win at Churchill Downs on Thursday. Trained by Ian Wilkes, she was ignored by bettors at 45-1 odds, but rallied up the inside and kicked away late to win the six-furlong maiden special weight by two lengths. A 2-year-old daughter of Maclean's Music, she is out of the winning Bernardini mare Andele. Her top-earning sibling so far is Melle Mel, a 3-year-old Liam's Map filly who has won twice and earned $67,918 so far.
Thursday's top maiden winners
| HRN | Horse | Sire | Age | Race | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 126 | On the Level | Classic Empire | 3C | DEL 6 | 6f dirt |
| 117 | Wish Carefully | Mitole | 4G | CNL 10 | 1 1/16 turf |
| 108 | A Fine Chardonnay | Maclean's Music | 2F | CD 6 | 6f dirt |
| 108 | Big Cuddle | Great Notion | 2C | DEL 1 | 5 1/2f dirt |
| 101 | Memorized | Tapit | 2F | BAQ 1 | 1 1/16 turf |
| 101 | Final Accord | War of Will | 2F | WO 1 | 5f turf |
| 97 | V Inspired | V. E. Day | 4F | CNL 12 | 1 1/16 turf |
| 97 | Souper Sporty | Souper Speedy | 2F | WO 5 | 7f synthetic |
| 93 | Miss Strawberry | Prime Attraction | 3F | WO 2 | 6 1/2f synthetic |
| 92 | Judith | Speightstown | 3F | CNL 7 | 5 1/2f turf |
About HRN speed figures
HRN speed figures are AI-generated using HRN's proprietary machine-learning algorithms. Although they involve less human input than other speed figures, we see that as a plus as human adjustments often knock down surprisingly good performances to match expectations. HRN speed figures were launched in December 2024, and our expectation is also that the AI-generated speed figures will continuously get better over time.
The HRN speed figure scale goes from 1 to 160. Part of the reason for this higher scale is this helps us avoid assigning a speed figure of zero. For some products, in weaker races, half the field or more may get a speed figure of zero, which leads to inaccuracy and defeats the purpose of speed figures.
Because the HRN speed figures are based on machine learning, as we improve our models we can compute the numbers historically.
Using the top last-race speed figure as a benchmark, here are stats from 2021 to 2024 for HRN and other speed-figure providers:
Top HRN figure, 26.2% winners
Top Beyer figure, 28.1% winners
Top TimeformUS figure, 28.4% winners
Although all HRN speed figures are published on individual horse profile pages on a weekly basis, the daily reports are focused on the top and medium-tier tracks, which represent the majority of top speed figures.