Speed figures: Keeneland maiden winners lead the pack
Dr. Kapur posted the day's highest Horse Racing Nation speed figure on Thursday with a 128 performance at Keeneland. The 2-year-old colt by McKinzie graduated at second asking in a seven-furlong maiden special weight, running to his 4-5 odds. He disputed the pace early before clearing off to win by 2 3/4 lengths for trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr.
Confessional impressed with a 126 HRN speed figure at Keeneland in his career debut. The 2-year-old colt by Essential Quality, trained by Brad Cox, was a 12-1 shot in the field of 11. He stalked the pace and then took over in the lane, winning the seven-furlong race by three lengths.
Floodlites completed the top three with a 125 HRN speed figure at Keeneland in a six-furlong sprint for $80,000 claimers who had not yet won two races. The 3-year-old City of Light gelding, trained by Wesley Ward, was the 7-2 second choice in the field. He tracked the early pace, took over in upper stretch, and kicked away to win by 3 1/4 lengths. It was his second win in eight starts, and his first victory on the dirt.
Thursday's top 10 speed figures
| HRN | Horse | Sire | Age | Race | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 128 | Dr. Kapur | McKinzie | 2C | KEE 6 | 7f dirt |
| 126 | Confessional | Essential Quality | 2C | KEE 3 | 7f dirt |
| 125 | Floodlites | City of Light | 3G | KEE 4 | 6f dirt |
| 124 | Mackman | Union Rags | 5H | KEE 7 | 1 1/16 dirt |
| 124 | Night Kiss | Midnight Lute | 5M | IND 2 | 6f dirt |
| 123 | Amusing Mischief | Into Mischief | 6G | DEL 9 | 6f dirt |
| 113 | Melle Mel | Liam's Map | 3F | BAQ 6 | 7f dirt |
| 113 | Hay Hay Paula | Bahamian Squall | 7M | WO 4 | 7f synthetic |
| 113 | Golden Irish | Goldencents | 3F | KEE 9 | 7f dirt |
| 112 | Mo for Us | Mo Tom | 4F | KEE 1 | 6f dirt |
Fastest maiden winners
Dr. Kapur posted the day's highest figure among maiden winners – and among all runners – with a 128 in a maiden special weight at Keeneland. The 2-year-old colt by McKinzie, who went off the 4-5 favorite in a field of eight, graduated at second asking for trainer Saffie Joseph in a seven-furlong dirt race. He is out of the Grade 3-placed Kitten's Joy mare Ava's Kitten, who won four times and earned $279,771. Ava's Kitten is a full sister to Grade 1 winner Real Solution. Her top-earning foal to date is Parents Pride, a Maclean's Music daughter who won twice and earned $153,650.
Confessional earned the second fastest HRN figure of the day, a 126, for his debut maiden win at Keeneland. The 2-year-old colt by Essential Quality was sent off at 12-1, an uncommonly good price for trainer Brad Cox, who is so often well bet. Confessional is out of the American Pharoah mare Speedy Vanessa, who won once in six starts and earned $28,435. Speedy Vanessa is a half-sister to Karlovy Vary, a Grade 1 winner and the dam of graded-stakes winners Mean Mary and Bye Bye Melvin. Speedy Vanessa's only other foal to race, the Tiz the Law filly Eunomia, has won once in nine starts and earned $80,713 to date.
Shilling earned a 108 HRN figure when she graduated in a seven-furlong maiden special weight sprint at Belmont at Aqueduct in her second career start. The 2-year-old filly by Global Campaign, trained by Kenny McPeek, led at every call to spring the 18-1 upset. She is out of the Exchange Rate mare Pounds to Pennies, who won once in seven starts and earned $68,560 on the racetrack. Shilling's top-earning sibling is Countrified, a gelding by Unified, who has won six times and earned $83,006 so far.
Thursday's top maiden winners
| HRN | Horse | Sire | Age | Race | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 128 | Dr. Kapur | McKinzie | 2C | KEE 6 | 7f dirt |
| 126 | Confessional | Essential Quality | 2C | KEE 3 | 7f dirt |
| 108 | Shilling | Global Campaign | 2F | BAQ 5 | 7f dirt |
| 101 | Yotowin | Yorkton | 3F | IND 1 | 5 1/2f dirt |
| 96 | Acousticat | Maclean's Music | 3F | IND 6 | 1 1/16 dirt |
| 95 | Z Train | Churchill | 4F | WO 5 | 1 3/16 turf |
| 93 | That'smydaughter | Charming Kitten | 3F | IND 3 | 5 1/2f dirt |
| 88 | Tim and Sam | Mo Town | 2C | BAQ 2 | 1 1/16 turf |
| 87 | Pump It Up | Audible | 4G | DEL 3 | 6f dirt |
| 83 | Just Aloof | Justify | 2F | BAQ 8 | 1 mile turf |
About HRN speed figures
HRN speed figures are AI-generated using HRN's proprietary machine-learning algorithms. Although they involve less human input than other speed figures, we see that as a plus as human adjustments often knock down surprisingly good performances to match expectations. HRN speed figures were launched in December 2024, and our expectation is also that the AI-generated speed figures will continuously get better over time.
The HRN speed figure scale goes from 1 to 160. Part of the reason for this higher scale is this helps us avoid assigning a speed figure of zero. For some products, in weaker races, half the field or more may get a speed figure of zero, which leads to inaccuracy and defeats the purpose of speed figures.
Because the HRN speed figures are based on machine learning, as we improve our models we can compute the numbers historically.
Using the top last-race speed figure as a benchmark, here are stats from 2021 to 2024 for HRN and other speed-figure providers:
Top HRN figure 26.2% winners
Top Beyer figure 28.1% winners
Top TimeformUS figure 28.4% winners
Although all HRN speed figures are published on individual horse profile pages on a weekly basis, the daily reports are focused on the top and medium-tier tracks, which represent the majority of top speed figures.