Speed figures: Impressive maiden-breaker for Baffert leads
Himari led all performers on Thursday with a 134 Horse Racing Nation speed figure in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight on the dirt at Del Mar. the 3-year-old Nyquist filly, trained by Bob Baffert, was the 8-5 favorite in the field of nine. She made the early lead, turned back a bid on the turn, and ran on to win by two lengths in her career debut.
Buttah earned a 126 HRN speed figure at Saratoga in the John Morrissey Stakes, a seven-furlong dirt sprint for New York-breds. The 4-year-old colt by Leofric, trained by Ilkay Kantarmaci, was the 5-1 third choice in a full field of 12. Buttah prompted the early pace, dueled around the turn, and fought on in the stretch to win by 1 1/2 lengths. It was his second win in a row, his first stakes win, and his fifth victory in 20 starts. Stakes success runs in his family: Buttah is a half-brother to a pair of stakes winners by Emcee, Lobsta and Chowda.
Benji Star completed the top three with a 121 HRN speed figure in a first-level allowance going six furlongs on the Colonial Downs dirt. The Mike Stidham trainee, a 5-year-old Upstart gelding, won as the 3-1 third choice in a field of eight. Benji Star raced toward the back early but moved early into contention, fought to the lead through midstretch and opened up to win by 2 1/2 lengths. It was his second win in six starts this year and his fifth in 14 career outings.
Thursday's top 10 speed figures
| HRN | Horse | Sire | Age/ Sex |
Race | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 134 | Himari | Nyquist | 3F | DMR 6 | 6 1/2f dirt |
| 126 | Buttah | Leofric | 4C | SAR 9 | 7f dirt |
| 121 | Benji Star | Upstart | 5G | CNL 7 | 6f dirt |
| 120 | Jacklyn Lucas | Grazen | 3F | DMR 2 | 1 mile dirt |
| 118 | Bits of Candy | Hit It a Bomb | 5M | IND 3 | 6f dirt |
| 118 | Susan's Mule | Army Mule | 5M | DEL 2 | 5 1/2f dirt |
| 117 | Golden Symphony | Medaglia d'Oro | 5G | SAR 1 | 1 mile dirt |
| 116 | Freakazoid | World of Trouble | 5H | DEL 7 | 6f dirt |
| 116 | Creative Quality | Lord Nelson | 5M | IND 1 | 6f dirt |
| 114 | Belle | Uncle Mo | 3F | CNL 6 | 1 1/8 miles turf |
Fastest maiden winners
Himari earned a 134 HRN speed figure for her victory in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight dirt sprint at Del Mar, not only the fastest maiden-winning speed figure of the day but the best of any winner. Himari is a 3-year-old daughter of Nyquist out of Miz K, a winning Tapit daughter of the Grade 1 winner Tiz Miz Sue. Miz K has produced two winners from three starters. Her other winner is the Speightster filly Grand Circle, who has won once and earned $39,231 so far.
Belle earned a 114 HRN speed figure at Colonial Downs in a maiden special weight at 1 1/8 miles on the grass. A 3-year-old daughter of Uncle Mo, she is trained by Kevin Attard. Sent off the 2-5 favorite in a field of eight, she clipped heels into the first turn but was still able to maintain a staking spot. She made her bid in upper stretch and battled to the wire to win by half a length. Belle is out of the winning Malibu Moon mare Lunar Evening, a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Hymn Book. Lunar Evening has produced two winners from four starters. Her other winner is Celestial City, whose three career wins included the 2022 Hill Prince Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct.
Quiet Mischief earned a 108 HRN speed figure at Horseshoe Indianapolis in a maiden special weight turf mile at Horseshoe Indianapolis. The 3-year-old Goldencents gelding, trained by Andrew McKeever, was the 9-5 favorite in the field of 12. He dueled outside another foe, put him away in upper stretch and opened up to win by 3 3/4 lengths. Quiet Mischief is the first starter out of the Munnings mare Lucky Betty, who won three times in seven starts, was Grade 2-placed and earned $147,336 on the track.
Thursday's top maiden winners
| HRN | Horse | Sire | Age/ Sex |
Race | Distance | Winning Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 134 | Himari | Nyquist | 3F | DMR 6 | 6 1/2f dirt | 2 lengths |
| 114 | Belle | Uncle Mo | 3F | CNL 6 | 1 1/8 miles turf | 1/2 length |
| 108 | Quiet Mischief | Goldencents | 3G | IND 8 | 1 mile turf | 3 3/4 lengths |
| 101 | Chartist | Tonalist | 3F | DEL 3 | 1 mile dirt | 2 1/4 lengths |
| 100 | Office | Not This Time | 3F | IND 6 | 5f turf | 2 1/4 lengths |
| 97 | How Much Is Enough | Kantharos | 3G | SAR 3 | 7f dirt | 5 1/2 lengths |
| 96 | Pray for Victory | Prayer for Relief | 3G | IND 5 | 6f dirt | head |
| 95 | Zadra | Bodexpress | 3F | DMR 8 | 5 1/2f dirt | neck |
| 94 | Gigline | Gunnevera | 3G | DEL 9 | 6f dirt | neck |
| 92 | Daenerys | Medaglia d'Oro | 3F | CNL 3 | 6f turf | 1 length |
About HRN speed figures
HRN speed figures are AI-generated using HRN's proprietary machine-learning algorithms. Although they involve less human input than other speed figures, we see that as a plus as human adjustments often knock down surprisingly good performances to match expectations. HRN speed figures were launched in December 2024, and our expectation is also that the AI-generated speed figures will continuously get better over time.
The HRN speed figure scale goes from 1 to 160. Part of the reason for this higher scale is this helps us avoid assigning a speed figure of zero. For some products, in weaker races, half the field or more may get a speed figure of zero, which leads to inaccuracy and defeats the purpose of speed figures.
Because the HRN speed figures are based on machine learning, as we improve our models we can compute the numbers historically.
Using the top last-race speed figure as a benchmark, here are stats from 2021 to 2024 for HRN and other speed-figure providers:
Top HRN figure 26.2% winners
Top Beyer figure 28.1% winners
Top TimeformUS figure 28.4% winners
Although all HRN speed figures are published on individual horse profile pages on a weekly basis, the daily reports are focused on the top and medium-tier tracks, which represent the majority of top speed figures.
Note: For the fastest maiden winners mentioned, all dam and sibling earnings are based on North American starts only.