Speed figures: Find out Sunday's fastest horses
Systemic Change posted Sunday's highest Horse Racing Nation speed figure, earning a 134 in a dirt mile at Churchill Downs. The 7-year-old Ghostzapper gelding, the 8-5 favorite in the seven-horse field, tracked the pace before bidding into the lane, battling, and clearing late to win by two lengths. He was trained by Mike Maker into the race, but was claimed to the barn of Linda Rice for $32,000 out of it. It was his second victory in four starts this year, and his 12th in 30 career starts.
Indy Bay earned a 129 HRN speed figure in an allowance-optional claiming race at Gulfstream PArk. The 4-year-old daughter of Take Charge Indy, sent off the 2-5 favorite for trainer Saffie Joseph Jr., ran to the odds. She stalked the pace early before taking over in the lane and running clear to win by 7 3/4 lengths. The victory was her first in four starts this year. She has five wins in 12 career starts, including the 2025 Charles Town Oaks (G2).
Sarir earned the joint third-highest HRN figure Sunday with a 122 in a conditioned $55,000 claiming race at Belmont at Aqueduct. The race was originally carded for 1 1/16 miles on grass, but moved to be run at a mile on a sloppy dirt track. The 5-year-old American Pharoah mare, trained by Linda Rice, prompted the pace early before taking the lead and gradually opening up, eventually crossing the wire 11 1/4 lengths clear as the 4-5 favorite. It was her second win in 20 lifetime starts.
Quarry also earned a 122 HRN speed figure Sunday in a maiden special weight dirt mile at Churchill Downs. The Tom Drury trainee, the 2-1 favorite in the field of seven, attended the pace for most of the race and ran on best late, winning by half a length in the end. The 3-year-old War of Will gelding won for the first time in 10 career starts.
Ciunas rounds out the trio of horses who earned a 122 HRN speed figure Sunday. The 4-year-old Silent Name gelding made his seasonal debut for trainer Rachel Halden in an optional claimer at seven furlongs on the Woodbine Tapeta. the 7-5 favorite of eight, Ciunas tracked the pace, made his rally into the lane, opened up in upper stretch, and maintained his advantage late to win by three lengths, tallying his third win in six career starts.
Sunday's top 10 speed figures
| HRN | Horse | Sire | Age | Race | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 134 | Systemic Change | Ghostzapper | 7G | CD 2 | 1 mile dirt |
| 129 | Indy Bay | Take Charge Indy | 4F | GP 8 | 7f dirt |
| 122 | Sarir | American Pharoah | 5M | BAQ 7 | 1 mile dirt |
| 122 | Quarry | War of Will | 3G | CD 4 | 1 mile dirt |
| 122 | Ciunas | Silent Name | 4G | WO 9 | 7f synthetic |
| 121 | El Capo | Authentic | 3C | WO 10 | 7f synthetic |
| 120 | Tacticality | Essential Quality | 3C | MTH 7 | 1 1/16 dirt |
| 118 | Goldentown | Speightstown | 5G | GP 5 | 6 1/2f dirt |
| 117 | Bachelor Pad | Not Bourbon | 9G | WO 8 | 7f synthetic |
| 117 | Secured Landing | Omaha Beach | 5G | BAQ 9 | 1 mile dirt |
Fastest maiden winners
Quarry earned Sunday's highest maiden-winning HRN speed figure, a 122, in his victory at Churchill Downs. The 3-year-old War of Will gelding broke his maiden in his tenth lifetime start, though has hit the board six other times in rich Kentucky races, meaning his earnings are now up to $125,056. That makes him the second winner and already the top earner out of his dam, the More than Ready mare Black Dynamite, a winning half-sister to Grade 1 winner Killer graces and Grade 2 winner Chocolate Ride.
El Capo impressed with a 121 HRN figure at Woodbine in a maiden special weight going seven furlongs on the Woodbine Tapeta. The sophomore colt by Authentic, trained by Preston Ferris, was the 3-1 favorite in the 11-horse field. He made the early lead and never relented, crossing the wire 4 1/4 lengths clear, to win for the first time in seven starts. El Capo is the first winner from two starters out of Revitalized, an unraced Uncle Mo daughter of Grade 3 winner Excited.
Curly's Agenda earned a 111 HRN speed figure, the third-best maiden winning figure on the day, in a $20,000 maiden claiming dirt mile at Santa Anita. Making his second start for trainer Philip Oviedo, he was the second-longest shot in the six-horse field at 8-1 odds. Settled toward the rear of a compact main field early, he got going in the lane and was up in time to win by half a length. Curly's Agenda is a 3-year-old gelding by Known Agenda out of the winning Empire Maker mare Pearly Blue. All six of her starters are winners, led by the Noble Mission gelding Nobals, a $1.9 million earner whose 13 wins include the 2023 Breeder's Cup Turf Sprint.
Sunday's top maiden winners
| HRN | Horse | Sire | Age | Race | Distance | Winning Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 122 | Quarry | War of Will | 3G | CD 4 | 1 mile dirt | 1/2 length |
| 121 | El Capo | Authentic | 3C | WO 10 | 7f synthetic | 4 1/4 lengths |
| 111 | Curly's Agenda | Known Agenda | 3G | SA 8 | 1 mile dirt | 1/2 length |
| 103 | Iron the Money | Mo Town | 4G | GP 1 | 5f synthetic | head |
| 101 | Ashcroft Lane | Keepmeinmind | 2C | BAQ 1 | 5 1/2f dirt | 9 3/4 lengths |
| 99 | Solo Jim | Solomini | 4G | BAQ 2 | 6f dirt | 1 1/2 lengths |
| 99 | Balaclava | Bold Warrior | 3F | CD 10 | 6f dirt | neck |
| 98 | Early Encore | Early Voting | 2C | SA 4 | 4 1/2f dirt | 6 3/4 lengths |
| 97 | Niigon's Law | Constitution | 4G | WO 7 | 1 1/16 synthetic | 4 1/4 lengths |
| 95 | Wander Woman | Blame | 3F | GP 9 | 6f dirt | 4 1/4 lengths |
About HRN speed figures
HRN speed figures are AI-generated using HRN's proprietary machine-learning algorithms. Although they involve less human input than other speed figures, we see that as a plus as human adjustments often knock down surprisingly good performances to match expectations. HRN speed figures were launched in December 2024, and our expectation is also that the AI-generated speed figures will continuously get better over time.
The HRN speed figure scale goes from 1 to 160. Part of the reason for this higher scale is this helps us avoid assigning a speed figure of zero. For some products, in weaker races, half the field or more may get a speed figure of zero, which leads to inaccuracy and defeats the purpose of speed figures.
Because the HRN speed figures are based on machine learning, as we improve our models we can compute the numbers historically.
Using the top last-race speed figure as a benchmark, here are stats from 2021 to 2024 for HRN and other speed-figure providers:
Top HRN figure 26.2% winners
Top Beyer figure 28.1% winners
Top TimeformUS figure 28.4% winners
Although all HRN speed figures are published on individual horse profile pages on a weekly basis, the daily reports are focused on the top and medium-tier tracks, which represent the majority of top speed figures.
Note: For the fastest maiden winners mentioned, all dam and sibling earnings are based on North American starts only.