Speed figures: Bill Mott winner leads Thursday's fastest
Victory Way led Thursday's performers with a 132 Horse Racing Nation speed figure in a six-furlong sprint at Aqueduct. Sent off at 2-1 in the second-level allowance, the 5-year-old gelding by City of Light stalked the pace and took over in the lane, winning by 1 3/4 lengths. Trained by Bill Mott, the Grade 3-placed Victory Way won for the first time in seven starts this year and the third time in 12 career outings.
Reynolds Channel earned a 128 HRN speed figure at Aqueduct in a dirt mile for conditioned $50,000 claiming horses. The 4-year-old gelding by West Coast, the 9-5 favorite, rallied from midfield and battled down the lane. He crossed the finish a neck behind Turn and Count but was placed first because of late-race interference. The win was his second in 17 lifetime starts and his first in eight races this year. He was trained by Michelle Nevin and was claimed to the barn of Amelia Green out of the race.
Premium completed the top three with a 126 HRN speed figure at Fair Grounds in a six-furlong conditioned claiming race. The 5-year-old gelding by Mastery, sent off the 4-5 favorite, won by 4 1/2 lengths in gate-to-wire fashion. It was his second win in a row and his seventh in 39 career starts. He was trained by Randy Degeyter Jr. into the race but was claimed out of it for $5,000 to the barn of Daniel Simonovich.
Thursday's top 10 speed figures
| HRN | Horse | Sire | Age | Race | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 132 | Victory Way | City of Light | 5G | AQU 3 | 6f dirt |
| 128 | Reynolds Channel | West Coast | 4G | AQU 8 | 1 mile dirt |
| 126 | Premium | Mastery | 5G | FG 9 | 6f dirt |
| 124 | Cooey | Girvin | 3F | GP 4 | 6 1/2f dirt |
| 120 | Punxsutawney Phil | More Than Ready | 4G | TP 8 | 1 mile syn |
| 120 | Time to Roll | Not This Time | 2C | AQU 7 | 7f dirt |
| 118 | Modica | Hard Spun | 4G | TP 6 | 1 1/16 syn |
| 116 | Winplaceandshow | Win Win Win | 2F | GP 6 | 6 1/2f dirt |
| 116 | Neom City | Handsome Mike | 4F | GP 7 | 6f dirt |
| 116 | Le Monstre Rapide | Star Guitar | 5H | FG 7 | 1 mile dirt |
Fastest maiden winners
Winplaceandshow posted the day's highest maiden winner figure with a 116 HRN speed figure in a maiden-optional claimer at Gulfstream Park going 6 1/2 furlongs on dirt. As a Florida-bred, the 2-year-old filly by Win Win Win was protected under the condition. Sent off the 9-5 favorite in her second career start, the Joe Orseno trainee jumped to the early lead and drew off to win by 3 1/2 lengths. She is out of the winning Distorted Humor mare Honey Talk, a daughter of Grade 1 winner Sweet Talker. Four of her siblings have earned six figures, with the top earner to date being Keep Talking, a Ghostzapper gelding who won three times, hit the board another 10 and earned $139,025.
Cajun Influence earned a 115 HRN speed figure at Woodbine in a six-furlong maiden special weight over the Tapeta. The 3-year-old Bucchero gelding, trained by Michael De Paulo, won at 5-2 odds in his third career start. He won by a length in gate-to-wire fashion. He is out of the Awesome Again mare Cajun Dawn, who has produced Grade 3-placed stakes winner Cajun Delta Dawn, Grade 2-placed Peace at Dawn, stakes winner Mom'z Laugh and multiple stakes-placed Cajun Breeze.
Social Belle impressed with a 112 at Turfway Park in her third career start. The 3-year-old filly by Laoban captured a six-furlong maiden special weight on the Tapeta at 6-1 odds, stalking the pace and running on late to win by 1 1/4 lengths for trainer Paulo Lobo. She is out of the Muqtarib mare A Jealous Woman, a multiple stakes winner and Grade 2-placed earner of $469,956. Her top foal, the Goldencents stallion By My Standards, was a four-time Grade 2 winner and earned $2.3 million on the track.
Thursday's top maiden winners
| HRN | Horse | Sire | Age | Race | Distance | Winning margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 116 | Winplaceandshow | Win Win Win | 2F | GP 6 | 6 1/2f dirt | 3 1/2 |
| 115 | Cajun Influence | Bucchero | 3G | WO 6 | 6f syn | 1 |
| 112 | Social Belle | Laoban | 3F | TP 7 | 6f syn | 1 1/4 |
| 110 | Mom's Spaghetti | Maclean's Music | 2C | TP 3 | 6f syn | 1/4 |
| 110 | Classical Knight | Ocean Knight | 3G | FG 5 | 6f dirt | 5 1/2 |
| 106 | Best Girl Magic | Uncle Mo | 2F | TP 5 | 6f syn | 1/2 |
| 103 | Earendel | War of Will | 3F | WO 9 | 7f syn | 1/2 |
| 102 | Chat Room | Good Magic | 2F | FG 8 | 1 mile turf | 2 |
| 91 | Bob's Channel | English Channel | 3G | FG 1 | 1 mile turf | 1 3/4 |
| 90 | Wunhappy Wabbit | Runhappy | 2F | WO 3 | 6 1/2f syn | 1 1/2 |
Note: For the fastest maiden winners mentioned, all dam and sibling earnings are based on North American starts only.
About HRN speed figures
HRN speed figures are AI-generated using HRN's proprietary machine-learning algorithms. Although they involve less human input than other speed figures, we see that as a plus as human adjustments often knock down surprisingly good performances to match expectations. HRN speed figures were launched in December 2024, and our expectation is also that the AI-generated speed figures will continuously get better over time.
The HRN speed figure scale goes from 1 to 160. Part of the reason for this higher scale is this helps us avoid assigning a speed figure of zero. For some products, in weaker races, half the field or more may get a speed figure of zero, which leads to inaccuracy and defeats the purpose of speed figures.
Because the HRN speed figures are based on machine learning, as we improve our models we can compute the numbers historically.
Using the top last-race speed figure as a benchmark, here are stats from 2021 to 2024 for HRN and other speed-figure providers:
Top HRN figure, 26.2% winners
Top Beyer figure, 28.1% winners
Top TimeformUS figure, 28.4% winners
Although all HRN speed figures are published on individual horse profile pages on a weekly basis, the daily reports are focused on the top and medium-tier tracks, which represent the majority of top speed figures.