Speed figs: Sovereignty leads top 10 after decisive Travers win
In his 10-length win in the Grade 1, $1.25 million Travers Stakes, Sovereignty posted Saturday’s highest Horse Racing Nation speed figure with a 135 at Saratoga. The 3-year-old colt by Into Mischief won the 1 1/4-mile race at 1-4 odds for his sixth career victory in his ninth start.
Patch Adams earned a 131 figure at Saratoga in the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial (G1). The 3-year-old colt by Into Mischief won the seven-furlong race at 5-2 odds, securing his fourth career win from seven starts.
Hope Road completed the top three with a 127 at Saratoga in the Ballerina (G1). The 4-year-old filly by Quality Road won the seven-furlong stakes at 2-1 odds, recording her fifth career victory from 12 starts.
Saturday’s top 10 speed figures
| HRN | Horse | Sire | Age | Race | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 135 | Sovereignty | Into Mischief | 3 c | SAR 13 | 1 1/4 dirt |
| 131 | Patch Adams | Into Mischief | 3 c | SAR 10 | 7 f dirt |
| 127 | Hope Road | Quality Road | 4 f | SAR 11 | 7 f dirt |
| 124 | Elysian Field | Hard Spun | 5 m | WO 9 | 7 f syn |
| 124 | Dr. Venkman | Ghostzapper | 5 g | DMR 9 | 7 f dirt |
| 123 | Then | Not This Time | 4 c | SAR 2 | 1 3/16 turf |
| 122 | Cat On Time | Not This Time | 5 g | ELP 8 | 6 1/2 f dirt |
| 121 | Thorpedo Anna | Fast Anna | 4 f | SAR 9 | 1 1/8 dirt |
| 121 | Book’em Danno | Bucchero | 4 g | SAR 12 | 7 f dirt |
| 120 | Quick to Accuse | Accelerate | 5 h | DEL 6 | 1 1/16 dirt |
Fastest maiden winners
Colonel Caliente posted the day’s highest maiden-winner figure with a 116 at Ellis Park. The 3-year-old colt by Army Mule won a seven-furlong maiden claimer at 6-1 odds in his seventh career start in a dominant win by three lengths. He is out of One Hot Senorita, a Sharp Humor mare, and his top sibling Bump Bailey has earned $90,000.
Big Dom impressed with a 116 HRN speed figure at Saratoga in his debut. The 2-year-old colt by McKinzie won a six-furlong maiden special weight at 3-1 odds. He is out of Half A. P., a Pulpit mare who earned $5,000, and his top sibling Abeliefinthislivin has earned $194,000 in Grade 3 company.
Intrepido earned a 114 at Del Mar in his second career start. The 2-year-old ridgling by Maximus Mischief captured a one-mile maiden special weight at 2-1 odds in a dominant win by 3 1/4 lengths. His dam Overly Indulgent by Pleasantly Perfect earned $12,000, and top sibling Amy Z has earned $177,000.
Friday’s top maiden winners
| HRN | Horse | Sire | Age | Race | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 116 | Colonel Caliente | Army Mule | 3 c | ELP 1 | 7 f dirt |
| 116 | Big Dom | McKinzie | 2 c | SAR 6 | 6 f dirt |
| 114 | Intrepido | Maximus Mischief | 2 r | DMR 1 | 1 mile dirt |
| 114 | Long Pour | Tom’s d’Etat | 3 c | SAR 4 | 6 f dirt |
| 109 | Debt Free | Not This Time | 3 f | ELP 9 | 5 1/2 f turf |
| 109 | Sturdy | Mitole | 4 g | MTH 8 | 1 1/16 dirt |
| 109 | Mikelle | Twirling Candy | 3 f | WO 6 | 7 f syn |
| 108 | Keep Dancin Nick | Stay Thirsty | 3 c | DMR 6 | 1 3/8 turf |
| 107 | Bottas | Vekoma | 2 c | SAR 1 | 1 3/8 turf |
| 103 | C’Mon Eileen | Complexity | 2 f | CNL 2 | 6 f dirt |
About HRN speed figures
HRN speed figures are AI-generated using HRN’s proprietary machine-learning algorithms. Although they involve less human input than other speed figures, we see that as a plus as human adjustments often knock down surprisingly good performances to match expectations. HRN speed figures were launched in December 2024, and our expectation is also that the AI-generated speed figures will continuously get better over time.
The HRN speed figure scale goes from 1 to 160. Part of the reason for this higher scale is this helps us avoid assigning a speed figure of zero. For some products, in weaker races, half the field or more may get a speed figure of zero, which leads to inaccuracy and defeats the purpose of speed figures.
Because the HRN speed figures are based on machine learning, as we improve our models we can compute the numbers historically.
Using the top last-race speed figure as a benchmark, here are stats from 2021 to 2024 for HRN and other speed-figure providers:
Top HRN figure 26.2% winners.
Top Beyer figure 28.1% winners.
Top TimeformUS figure 28.4% winners.
Although all HRN speed figures are published on individual horse profile pages on a weekly basis, the daily reports are focused on the top and medium-tier tracks, which represent the majority of top speed figures.