Speed figs: Rebel’s Romance stands atop HRN’s daily top 10
In his bid to win the Breeders’ Cup Turf for the third time, Rebel’s Romance added a Saturday win made all the more impressive by the speed figure he earned.
The 7-year-old Dubawi gelding led all performers Saturday with a 133 Horse Racing Nation speed figure when he won the Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic at the Belmont at Aqueduct fall meet. With Frankie Dettori riding, Rebel’s Romance won the 1 1/2-mile race at 3-5 odds in a dominant win by 3 1/2 lengths. It marked the 20th career victory in his 29th start for the England-based globetrotter trained by Charlie Appleby for Godolphin.
Click here for Belmont at Aqueduct entries and results.
Tumbarumba earned a 129 HRN figure at Churchill Downs in the Ack Ack Stakes (G3). The 5-year-old gelding by Oscar Performance captured the one-mile dirt stakes at 7-1 odds. He recorded his seventh career win from 24 starts.
Johannes completed the top three with a 128 at Santa Anita in the City of Hope Mile (G2). The 5-year-old horse by Nyquist won the one-mile turf stakes at 1-5 odds. This was his ninth career victory from 15 starts.
Saturday’s top 10 speed figures
| HRN | Horse | Sire | Age | Race | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 133 | Rebel’s Romance | Dubawi | 7 g | BAQ 5 | 1 1/2 turf |
| 129 | Tumbarumba | Oscar Performance | 5 g | CD 8 | 1 mile dirt |
| 128 | Johannes | Nyquist | 5 h | SA 4 | 1 mile turf |
| 127 | R Disaster | Awesome Slew | 4 f | BAQ 8 | 6 1/2f dirt |
| 127 | Striker Has Dial | Dialed In | 4 f | DEL 8 | 6f dirt |
| 125 | Night Time Nap | Violence | 4 g | LRL 2 | 1 1/16 dirt |
| 124 | Locked | Gun Runner | 4 c | BAQ 6 | 1 1/8 dirt |
| 123 | In the Dance | Imagining | 4 g | DEL 6 | 1 5/16 dirt |
| 123 | Reef Runner | The Big Beast | 4 g | SA 8 | 6 1/2f turf |
| 122 | Nevada Beach | Omaha Beach | 3 c | SA 9 | 1 1/8 dirt |
Fastest maiden winners
Igniter posted Saturday’s highest maiden-winner figure with a 115 at Belmont at Aqueduct. The 2-year-old colt by Volatile won a one-mile race at even money his second career start. He is out of Malibu Prayer, a Grade 1 winner by Malibu Moon who earned $618,000, and his top sibling Mickswagger by the same sire has earned $92,000.
Mendelssohns Angel impressed with a 115 HRN speed figure in a six-furlong turf race at Santa Anita. The 3-year-old filly by Mendelssohn won at 12-1 odds in her third career start. Her dam Angel Alessandra by Ghostzapper earned $111,000 during her racing career.
Ludicrous earned a 111 at Woodbine in her third career start. The 3-year-old filly by Practical Joke won a 6 1/2-furlong race on the synthetic course at 8-1 odds. She is out of Diametric, a Munnings mare who earned $26,000.
Saturday’s top maiden winners
| HRN | Horse | Sire | Age | Race | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 115 | Igniter | Volatile | 2 c | BAQ 1 | 1 mile dirt |
| 115 | Mendelssohns Angel | Mendelssohn | 3 f | SA 1 | 6f turf |
| 111 | Ludicrous | Practical Joke | 3 f | WO 8 | 6 1/2f syn |
| 111 | Trouble Time | Not This Time | 3 g | CD 1 | 6f dirt |
| 109 | Americathegreat | Curlin | 2 f | CD 5 | 1 mile dirt |
| 106 | Provenance | Into Mischief | 2 c | SA 5 | 6f dirt |
| 105 | Letmecounttheways | Yaupon | 2 f | BAQ 12 | 6f dirt |
| 104 | La Liberta | Frankel | 4 f | DEL 5 | 1 1/16 turf |
| 104 | Mobula | Twirling Candy | 3 f | WO 4 | 7f syn |
| 100 | Artist Mark | American Pharoah | 3 g | LRL 11 | 6f dirt |
About HRN speed figures
HRN speed figures are AI-generated using HRN’s proprietary machine-learning algorithms. Although they involve less human input than other speed figures, we see that as a plus as human adjustments often knock down surprisingly good performances to match expectations. HRN speed figures were launched in December 2024, and our expectation is also that the AI-generated speed figures will continuously get better over time.
The HRN speed figure scale goes from 1 to 160. Part of the reason for this higher scale is this helps us avoid assigning a speed figure of zero. For some products, in weaker races, half the field or more may get a speed figure of zero, which leads to inaccuracy and defeats the purpose of speed figures.
Because the HRN speed figures are based on machine learning, as we improve our models we can compute the numbers historically.
Using the top last-race speed figure as a benchmark, here are stats from 2021 to 2024 for HRN and other speed-figure providers:
Top HRN figure 26.2% winners.
Top Beyer figure 28.1% winners.
Top TimeformUS figure 28.4% winners.
Although all HRN speed figures are published on individual horse profile pages on a weekly basis, the daily reports are focused on the top and medium-tier tracks, which represent the majority of top speed figures.