Southwest fair odds: Linebacker is a value play in even field

It's a shame that Oaklawn Park got rid of its Pick 6 because "Linebacker is key to Pick 6" would have made a much better headline, but regardless, the maiden is a likely key to my plays for the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes given his 30-1 morning line and numbers that stack favorably against this group.

No. 1 Maycocks Bay is the 3-1 morning-line favorite, but there are some things conspiring against the Godolphin homebred at a likely short price.

Both wins came in "off" conditions. His maiden victory was on a sloppy, sealed track at Parx and then his victory last out was in an off-the-turf event, albeit on a Fair Grounds dirt track labeled as fast.

His two wins were near or on the lead. That last win was a gate-to-wire effort from the rail in a race Brisnet labeled as a slow pace. He gets the rail again, but the pace won't be slow, judging by half the field receiving the "E" run style designation from the Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances.

Also, his last race was a huge step forward on the Ragozin Sheets. Coming back on four weeks rest after a by-far-career-best performance while dealing with more front-end pressure is not a situation that merits betting the favorite.

I'm less bearish on no. 5 Wynstock and no. 4 Otto the Conqueror, the second and fourth choices on the morning line, respectively. But their forward styles concern me given the aforementioned glut of "E" types here.

Of all the speed types, no. 7 Carbone and no. 10 Mystic Dan interest me most. Carbone has negotiated both his gate-to-wire wins from outside posts, and in both occasions, jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. has had company early before drawing off late. That gives me some hope that he can rate from the middle if necessary.

No. 11 Just Steel has a couple races that look good enough to win this, and at 8-1 on the morning line, he offers interest to keep tabs on the final price.

Unquestionably, though, Linebacker excites me most. He was 11-10 against 11 others in a maiden last out and was off slow before rallying for second, much the best of the rest. That was his two-turn debut, and a better start puts him in the mix against these at what the morning line maker projects to be a huge price. There should be plenty of pace to chase as well.

Wagering-wise, nos. 9, 10 and 11 look to offer the most value. I'll play Linebacker to win and use 9, 10, 11 with 4, 5, 6, 7. If they bet Wynstock heavier, then I'll be willing to chuck him along with Meycocks Bay. But as a non-favorite, as the morning line suggests, I'd use him with my prices.