Southwest 2022: This Kentucky Derby prep fits particular style
It began in March 1968 as the Southwest Handicap. It morphed into the Southwest Stakes in 1985. It became a President’s Day tradition in 2007. For the first time this year, the race will be run in January, specifically Saturday.
Yet for all its history, the Southwest is like so many preps in the dead of winter. It does not produce many Kentucky Derby winners. Lil E. Tee, who was third at Oaklawn in 1992, and Smarty Jones, who won in 2004, were the only two horses who graduated from this race to wear springtime roses at Churchill Downs.
Click here for Oaklawn entries and results.
Now a 1 1/16-mile, Grade 3 race worth $750,000 and 10-4-2-1 in Derby qualifying points, the Southwest is a lot like the Lecomte that was run and won last week by Call Me Midnight. History shows closers thrive in both races.
In the 24 runnings of the Southwest since 2000 (there were two divisions in 2002 and 2012), 14 horses came from at least two lengths behind to win. Six of the last seven were at least three lengths up the track at any given call. That could be good news for Saturday’s off-the-pace horses like Dash Attack and Barber Road.
RELATED: Handicapping the 2022 Southwest Stakes.
At the same time, it is a well-known fact that closers do not fare well in the Derby, especially since the prep-points system was established nine years ago. Seven of the last eight winners were never farther back than third place at any call. Country House in 2019 was the lone exception when he was promoted over disqualified frontrunner Maximum Security.
Even though the Southwest has produced only six 3-year-olds who have finished in the money in the Derby, that does not mean it has been without any high-caliber horses. Just last year Essential Quality, winner of one Eclipse Award and finalist for another, finished first at Oaklawn before coming in fourth at Churchill Downs. However, he had to come from off the pace to win at Oaklawn, and he was unable to do so in the Derby.
Conversely, among the 10 frontrunners who won the Southwest since 2000, only Smarty Jones managed to even hit the board at Churchill Downs.
These are the past-performance lines from the Southwest winners since 2000 showing the lengths behind at each call they trailed:
| Year | Winner | 1/4 | 1/2 | 3/4 | Str | Fin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Essential Quality | 5 - 3 1/2 | 4 - 2 1/2 | 3 - hd | 1 | 1 |
| 2020 | Silver Prospector | 6 - 1 3/4 | 3 - 1 1/2 | 3 - 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2019 | Super Steed | 9 - 5 1/4 | 9 - 3 1/2 | 5 - 1/2 | 1 | 1 |
| 2018 | My Boy Jack | 8 - 8 1/2 | 9 - 8 1/2 | 8 - 3 3/4 | 1 | 1 |
| 2017 | One Liner | 4 - 3 | 4 - 2 1/2 | 3 - 3 | 2 - 1 | 1 |
| 2016 | Suddenbreakingnews | 14 - 15 | 14 - 12 1/2 | 12 - 8 1/2 | 5 - 5 1/2 | 1 |
| 2015 | Far Right | 9 - 9 3/4 | 8 - 9 | 8 - 4 3/4 | 4 - 3/4 | 1 |
| 2014 | Tapiture | 2 - 1/2 | 3 - hd | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2013 | Super Ninety Nine | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2012 | Castaway | 2 - 1/2 | 2 - 1/2 | 2 - hd | 1 | 1 |
| Secret Circle | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 | 2 - hd | 2 - hd | 1 | |
| 2011 | Archarcharch | 5 - 6 1/2 | 4 - 3 | 4 - 3/4 | 1 | 1 |
| 2010 | Conveyance | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2009 | Old Fashioned | 2 - 1 | 2 - 2 | 2 - 1/2 | 1 | 1 |
| 2008 | Denis of Cork | 5 - 8 1/2 | 5 - 18 | 4 - 9 | 3 - 1/2 | 1 |
| 2007 | Teuflesberg | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2006 | Lawyer Ron | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2005 | Greater Good | 7 - 9 3/4 | 7 - 11 1/4 | 6 - 4 1/4 | 3 - 4 1/2 | 1 |
| 2004 | Smarty Jones | 2 - 1 1/2 | 2 - 2 1/2 | 2 - hd | 1 | 1 |
| 2003 | Great Notion | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2002 | Private Emblem | 4 - 10 | 4 - 8 | 4 - 1 1/4 | 3 - 1 1/2 | 1 |
| Paloma Parilla | 3 - 2 1/2 | 3 - 1/2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2001 | Son of Rocket | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2000 | Afternoon Affair | 5 - 4 1/2 | 3 - 3 | 2 - 1 1/2 | 1 | 1 |
This may be as much about trainers holding back their best horses until Oaklawn’s bigger preps – the 61-year-old Rebel (G2) and the 86-year-old Arkansas Derby (G1). According to the Churchill Downs media guide, the Southwest in its 54 years has a collective Kentucky Derby record of 38: 2-2-2, the Rebel 58: 3-2-3 and the Arkansas Derby 116: 7-5-8.
With Quirin Speed Points reflecting each horse’s racing style (see footnote), these are the Southwest graduates since 2000 who went on to the Kentucky Derby:
| Year | Horse | Quirin | SW | Derby |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Essential Quality | E/P 4 | 1st | 4th |
| 2020 | ||||
| 2019 | Cutting Humor | P 4 | 7th | 10th |
| Long Range Toddy | E/P 5 | 3rd | 16th | |
| 2018 | My Boy Jack | S 0 | 1st | 5th |
| Combatant | P 0 | 2nd | 18th | |
| 2017 | Lookin At Lee | S 0 | 3rd | 2nd |
| Hence | S 1 | 7th | 11th | |
| 2016 | Suddenbreakingnews | S 0 | 1st | 5th |
| Whitmore | S 0 | 2nd | 19th | |
| 2015 | Mr. Z | E 6 | 3rd | 13th |
| Far Right | S 0 | 1st | 15th | |
| 2014 | Ride On Curlin | E/P 5 | 3rd | 7th |
| Tapiture | E/P 4 | 1st | 15th | |
| 2013 | Will Take Charge | P 3 | 6th | 8th |
| 2012 | ||||
| 2011 | Archarcharch | P 4 | 1st | 15th |
| 2010 | Conveyance | E 8 | 1st | 15th |
| Dublin | S 2 | 2nd | 7th | |
| Mission Impazible | E/P 5 | 3rd | 9th | |
| 2009 | ||||
| 2008 | Denis of Cork | P 2 | 1st | 3rd |
| 2007 | Teuflesberg | E 5 | 1st | 17th |
| Hard Spun | E 6 | 4th | 2nd | |
| 2006 | Lawyer Ron | E/P 6 | 1st | 12th |
| Steppenwolfer | S 0 | 2nd | 3rd | |
| 2005 | Greater Good | S 2 | ||
| 2004 | Smarty Jones | E/P 7 | 1st | 1st |
| Pro Prado | S 2 | 3rd | 13th | |
| 2003 | ||||
| 2002 | Private Emblem | E/P 5 | 1st | 14th |
| 2001 | Arctic Boy | S 2 | 2nd | 12th |
| 2000 | ||||
| E - Early (pacesetter) | ||||
| E/P - Early presser (stalker) | ||||
| P - Presser (mid-pack) | ||||
| S - Sustainer (closer) |
Seven Kentucky Derby winners have prepped at one time or another at Oaklawn – Sunny’s Halo (1983), Lil E. Tee (1992), Grindstone (1996), Smarty Jones (2004), Super Saver (2010), American Pharoah (2015) and Country House (2019). Although most skipped the early preps, they all came through the Arkansas Derby.
If nothing else, what this means is the Southwest is more of a prep for the Rebel, which is a prep for the Arkansas Derby, which is the real prep for the Kentucky Derby.