Solomini offers big value in 2018 Kentucky Derby Future Wager
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Photo:
Eclipse Sportswire
Looking at Pool 4 of the 2018 Kentucky Derby Future Wager, odds on Bob Baffert trainee Solomini pop off the page at 29-1.
With more than $250,000 in the "Win" pool as of mid-afternoon Sunday, it's easy to see how forgotten Solomini is compared to the seven horses ranked above him, all of whom have raced in the last two weeks (other than Magnum Moon, who beat Solomini in the Rebel Stakes).
| Horse | Odds | Key Accomplishments |
| Justify | 5-2 | Undefeated SA Derby winner |
| Mendelssohn | 9-2 | BC Juv Turf & UAE Derby winner |
| Audible | 7-1 | Florida Derby winner |
| Good Magic | 9-1 | BC Juvenile & Blue Grass winner |
| Bolt d'Oro | 10-1 | Multiple Stakes winner, 2nd in SA Derby |
| Magnum Moon | 12-1 | Undefeated Rebel Stakes winner |
| Hofburg | 21-1 | 2nd in Florida Derby |
| Solomini | 29-1 | 2nd in BC Juvenile & Rebel Stakes |
One of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager's main goals is to get better odds today than on Kentucky Derby day. Given the fact that there will likely be 20 horses in the Kentucky Derby, and how competitive the race will be, it's unlikely that Justify will be lower than 5-2. In fact, he might even be higher than that on Derby Day. And at this point I would be willing to be a lot that Mendelssohn will be much higher than 9-2 on Derby day. Because of their recent flashy wins, these horses are inflating the odds of the others.
Another thing to keep in mind is that with 20 horses in the Derby, and the possibility of bad trips, weather and other unforeseen factors, having higher odds is better, especially in advance.
Looking at Solomini specifically, the only thing he hasn't done to fit in with the top group is run big in one of the main Kentucky Derby preps. But he will get that chance next week in the Arkansas Derby. Along with Magnum Moon in that race, he will have very low odds to finish in the first two spots next week. That finish, along with his past accomplishments, breeding and trainer will justify his inclusion in this top group on Derby Day. In fact, to have him rated behind the lightly raced Hofburg, who only has a Florida Derby second to his credit, shows just how forgotten Solomini is at this point.
Mike Shutty, author of Horse Racing Nation's Super Screener handicapping system, took a look at his recent form, and highlighted a few key points looking at Solomini's Brisnet past performances:
1. Trouble in last stuck on the rail and did not change leads...can turn the tables on Magnum Moon with clean trip
2. Great form progression leading up to the Rebel. Better trip would have shown at least a match of the prior two races. (Note the red arrow on ascending speed figures.)
3. Working really well leading up to this. (Note the yellow highlight.)
4. Shows no quit and is begging for more ground. Arue 1 1/4-mile horse.
5. Lays out energy in a very balanced way and at elevated levels. (Note the green highlight.)
6. Only knock is that he is so lightly raced this year. It feels like he is being pointed to owner Zayat Stables' home track for the Belmont Stakes.
Putting it all together, Solomini is very likely to run first or second in the Arkansas Derby and cement his position in the Top 6 contenders on Derby Day. Depending on his race next week, he could be anywhere from 8-1 to 16-1 on Derby Day, so at 29-1 we are basically getting double the odds on Kentucky Derby day.
That's great value and worth taking a shot on before Future Wager Pool 4 closes at 6 p.m. Sunday.
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