Smarty Jones fair odds: 2-turn dirt form is worth a play
On paper, the Smarty Jones Stakes on Saturday at Oaklawn looks evenly matched, but Strategic Risk's win last out stands tallest to my eyes.
This is notable because he is the fifth choice on the morning line. Although I do not think that will be the reality come post time of the 1 1/16-mile Kentucky Derby points race, I can't see him as the favorite. And that means he is sure to be value, considering I have him as the most likely winner.
Strategic Risk blitzed fellow Florida-breds on debut but found the waters deep in a pair of stakes in a dirt sprint and then a turf route. Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse gave John Oxley's homebred son of Noble Bird a freshening, and the colt responded with a third-place finish followed by a nine-length stakes win. That was a two-turn dirt route after sitting off a slow pace, and there figures to be more zip in this spot.
Rancho Santa Fe is the 5-2 morning-line favorite, which is somewhat understandable given the son of Tapit's undefeated status for trainer Brad Cox. But his races are nowhere close to fast enough relative to his rivals to warrant favoritism. He is a total toss for me if well backed.
Universe is the 3-1 second choice and more likely to me to be favored. I am concerned with him getting good setups in two of his last three starts and just not getting there. He will be running late, but I'd rather bet Strategic Risk at a longer price.
Boca Beach Club is the other logical contender. My biggest question with him is distance. Being by Omaha Beach out of a Mineshaft mare, I'm sure this 1 1/16-mile distance will be in his scope. But it's a tall order to stretch from 5 1/2 furlongs to 8 1/2. Worth watching the board on this one, as I certainly like him more than Rancho Santa Fe.
If both Strategic Risk and Boca Beach Club are outside the top two choices, then zeroing in on them from a wagering standpoint is the play. Since that is the case on the morning line, they are the two I will use most in exotic wagers.