Smarty Jones Stakes 2023 at Oaklawn: Odds and analysis

Sunday’s $250,000 Smarty Jones is the first of four stops on Oaklawn Park’s road to the 2023 Kentucky Derby. The one-mile stakes race drew a field of eight which celebrate their racetrack birthdays on this day and will make their first start as 3-year-olds.

As an official Derby prep race, 10-4-3-2-1points are available to the top five eligible finishers. Denington is the only horse in the field with a point to his credit.

Here is a full-field analysis for the Smarty Jones with morning-line odds from the Horse Racing Nation staff (sires, trainers, jockeys, records, purse earnings are in parentheses). The Smarty Jones is scheduled as race 8 out of 9 with post time is set for 5:10 p.m. EST.

1. C.J.’s Storm (20-1, Storm’s Eye Storm, John Haran, Angel Rodriguez, 5: 1-0-0, $29,585). This Indiana-bred broke his maiden in his fourth try against state-breds going a mile at Horseshoe Indianapolis. In his first try against open company in the Advent Stakes at Oaklawn he finished eighth out of nine. Toss.

2. How Did He Do That (15-1, Good Magic, Steve Asmussen, Isaac Castillo, 6: 2-0-0, $91,808). The son of Good Magic was the winner of a $150,000 maiden claimer in his third start. He was sixth in the Clever Trevor at Remington Park and then won Zia Park Juvenile sprinting six furlongs. He was fifth in the aforementioned Advent. How Did He Do That will have to stretch out to two-turns for the first time in the Smarty Jones. Toss.

3. Communication Memo (7-2, Bolt d’Oro, Steve Asmussen, Ricardo Santana Jr., 4: 1-1-2, $99,125). Communication Memo added Lasix for the first time to break his maiden by four lengths going a mile at Oaklawn. The race before he was second in a very strong field of 10 at Churchill Downs. Expect to see this second Asmussen runner pressing the early pace. Use underneath.

4. Western Ghent (20-1, American Pharoah, D. Wayne Lukas, Cristian Torres, 8: 1-0-1, $63,362). With eight starts, Western Ghent is the most experienced horse in the field. His only win came in his fourth start in a $75,000 maiden claiming at Saratoga. Since, his Hall of Fame trainer ran him in three graded stakes where he was not competitive and an allowance at Keeneland where he finished third. Toss.

5. Ten Days Later (9-2, Collected, Ken McPeek, David Cabrera, 5: 1-0-3, $96,275). In his five career starts Ten Days Later raced at four different Kentucky tracks showing a preference to race at longer distances. At Keeneland in October he got his only victory against a full field of 12 and then again rallied strongly to finish third in a Churchill allowance behind a horse that ran in a Derby prep. Win contender.

6. Denington, (5-1, Gun Runner, Ken McPeek, Francisco Arrieta, 5: 1-1-0, $95,195). The second McPeek trainee in the field is Denington, who, like his stablemate, prefers to run from off the pace as he did in his maiden score on a sloppy track under the twin spires. Denington gained stakes experience when he finished fifth in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), earning one Derby qualifying point. Top choice.

7. Angel of Empire (6-1, Classic Empire, Brad Cox, Joe Talamo, 3: 2-0-0, $43,000). Trainer Brad Cox also has two horses in the Smarty Jones beginning with this Pennsylvania-bred that broke his maiden at first asking back in August at Horseshoe Indianapolis going a mile on a sloppy track. Cox then sent him to Kentucky Downs in a sprint to no avail. Last month he went back to the dirt in Indiana and beat an allowance field by more than six lengths. Both of his wins came while racing with Lasix. Use underneath.

8. Victory Formation (8-5, Tapwrit – Brad Cox, Flavien Prat, 2: 2-0-0, $129,535) With two wins in two starts this Cox runner will be a heavy favorite. He sold for $340,000 last spring and then was a debut winner by nearly five lengths at Keeneland in October with a front-end effort in a sprint. Victory Formation came right back going six furlongs to win an allowance at Churchill by a neck. Prat will travel from California to take the mount. The one to beat.

Summary: The field of eight in the Smarty Jones has five horses with only a maiden victory, a pair with an allowance victory and one stakes winner. The recent frigid weather in the Midwest hampered training and probably limited the field.

Cox, who seems to have stable filled with Kentucky Derby candidates, trains both of the allowance winners with the unbeaten Victory Formation and the Pennsylvania-bred Angel of Empire. Victory Formation has a pair of sprint wins and Angel of Empire got his victories at Horseshoe Indianapolis.

How Did He Do That from the Asmussen barn won the Zia Park Juvenile in November and will race two-turns for the first time.

McPeek sends two of those maiden winners into the Smarty Jones. Denington raced two turns in all five of his starts including a fifth in the Kentucky Jockey Club when he made a strong late rally to get within 1 1/2 lengths of the winner. He will be the top choice taking a shot to beat the Cox duo.