Sire watch: Where do Twirling Candy runners excel?
Twirling Candy, the Grade 1 winner who captured the Grade 1 Malibu Stakes and Californian (G2) during his racing career, has established himself as a reliable sire with 26 graded-stakes winners to his credit, 11 of them Grade 1.
Standing at Lane's End Farm in Kentucky, the son of Candy Ride commanded a stud fee of $60,000 for the 2025 breeding season. His progeny have amassed over $86 million in earnings from more than 11,500 starts, demonstrating both quantity and quality in his offspring.
The 18-year-old stallion's racing prowess on dirt and turf has translated well to his stud career, with his offspring showing versatility across multiple surfaces and distances. Among his notable runners are Grade 1 winners as Gift Box, Concrete Rose and Rombauer, who captured the 2021 Preakness Stakes.
In 2025, his three Grade 1 winners are so different it is tough to imagine them all having the same sire. Ag Bullet is a turf sprinter, Fionn is a turf router and Kilwin is a sprinter on dirt. All are top contenders for the Breeders' Cup. Let's go deeper into the data.
Surface analysis: strong performance across all surfaces
Twirling Candy's offspring demonstrate solid performance across dirt, turf, and synthetic surfaces, with particularly strong earnings on turf races.
| Surface | Starts | Wins | W% | Avg HRN | $/start |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dirt | 6,867 | 1,180 | 17.2% | 84 | $6,096 |
| Turf | 3,523 | 574 | 16.3% | 88 | $11,035 |
| Synthetic | 1,180 | 169 | 14.3% | 88 | $4,986 |
| Overall | 11,570 | 1,923 | 16.6% | 85 | $7,487 |
His runners show their highest win percentage on dirt at 17.2%, though turf performers earn significantly more per start at $11,035 compared to $6,096 on dirt. Turf runners also produce the highest average Horse Racing Nation speed figures at 88, matching synthetic surface performers.
Distance preferences: Balanced sprint and route ability
Twirling Candy's offspring show effectiveness at both sprint and route distances, with slight advantages in different metrics for each category.
| Distance | Starts | Wins | W% | Avg HRN | $/start |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sprint | 7,191 | 1,210 | 16.8% | 84 | $6,775 |
| Route | 4,379 | 713 | 16.3% | 88 | $8,655 |
Sprint runners win at a slightly higher rate (16.8% vs. 16.3%), while route performers generate higher earnings per start and better speed figures. The four-point difference in average HRN speed figures (88 vs. 84) suggests his offspring may run their best races when stretched out in distance.
Surface and distance combinations: Turf-route excellence
Breaking down performance by both surface and distance reveals where Twirling Candy's offspring excel most.
| Surface/ Distance |
Starts | Wins | W% | Avg HRN | $/start |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dirt sprint | 5,120 | 883 | 17.3% | 84 | $5,538 |
| Dirt route | 1,747 | 297 | 17.0% | 83 | $7,733 |
| Turf sprint | 1,388 | 221 | 15.9% | 81 | $12,280 |
| Turf route | 2,135 | 353 | 16.5% | 93 | $10,225 |
| Synth sprint | 683 | 106 | 15.5% | 89 | $4,867 |
| Synth route | 497 | 63 | 12.7% | 88 | $5,150 |
Turf route runners produce exceptional HRN speed figures of 93, the highest of any category, and turf sprinters generate the most earnings per start at $12,280. Dirt performers show the highest win percentages, with dirt sprinters winning at 17.3%. Among Twirling Candy's stakes-winning turf routers are the aforementioned Fionn, who just took down the Dueling Grounds Oaks (G2), as well as Hollywood Derby (G1) winner Beyond Brilliant.
Detailed distance analysis: Effectiveness across all ranges
A closer examination of specific distance ranges shows Twirling Candy's offspring perform well across the spectrum.
| Distance range | Starts | Wins | W% | Avg HRN | $/start |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 6F | 2,576 | 443 | 17.2% | 78 | $6,185 |
| 6F to 6.5F | 3,851 | 657 | 17.1% | 87 | $7,057 |
| 6.51F to 8F | 3,285 | 531 | 16.2% | 87 | $7,172 |
| 8.01F to 9F | 1,780 | 278 | 15.6% | 89 | $8,705 |
| Greater than 9F | 78 | 14 | 17.9% | 98 | $57,141 |
At distances greater than nine furlongs, his offspring excel with a 17.9% win rate and outstanding average HRN speed figures of 98. The $57,141 earnings per start reflects the high-quality nature of these longer-distance events, though the sample size remains relatively small at 78 starts.
Gender analysis: strong female performance
Twirling Candy shows a notable preference for producing successful female offspring compared to males.
| Gender | Starts | Wins | W% | Avg HRN | $/start |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Male | 6,921 | 1,119 | 16.2% | 88 | $6,805 |
| Female | 4,649 | 804 | 17.3% | 81 | $8,502 |
Female progeny outperform males with a 17.3% win rate compared to 16.2% for males, and earn more per start at $8,502 versus $6,805. But male runners produce higher average HRN speed figures at 88 compared to 81 for females. Other top females Twirling Candy has produced are fan favorite and Grade 3 winner Morticia, Madison (G1) winner Finley'sluckycharm, Belmont Oaks winner Concrete Rose and Winning Colors (G3) winner Two Sharp.
Off-track performance: Consistent in all conditions
Twirling Candy's offspring maintain solid performance across wet track conditions on both dirt and turf surfaces.
| Surface/ Condition |
Starts | Wins | W% | Avg HRN | $/start |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dirt sprint wet | 925 | 153 | 16.5% | 87 | $5,112 |
| Dirt route wet | 397 | 64 | 16.1% | 84 | $6,633 |
| Turf sprint wet | 182 | 31 | 17.0% | 82 | $12,255 |
| Turf route wet | 268 | 39 | 14.6% | 92 | $9,427 |
Performance on wet tracks remains consistent with overall statistics, showing his offspring adapt well to varying track conditions across surfaces.
Development pattern: Steady improvement with experience
Twirling Candy's offspring show clear progression through their early racing careers.
| Experience | Starts | Wins | W% | Avg HRN | $/start |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First start | 779 | 128 | 16.4% | 72 | $7,425 |
| Second start | 726 | 130 | 17.9% | 77 | $11,124 |
| Third start | 679 | 95 | 14.0% | 79 | $8,231 |
Speed figures show steady improvement from first (72) to third starts (79), with second-time starters achieving the highest win percentage at 17.9% and the best earnings per start.
Age analysis: Consistent performance across ages
Twirling Candy's progeny maintain solid statistics across different age groups, with some variation in performance metrics.
| Age | Starts | Wins | W% | Avg HRN | $/start |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2YO | 1,295 | 217 | 16.8% | 72 | $10,235 |
| 3YO | 3,724 | 616 | 16.5% | 85 | $8,643 |
| 4YO | 3,087 | 535 | 17.3% | 88 | $6,792 |
| 5YO+ | 3,464 | 555 | 16.0% | 90 | $5,835 |
Four-year-olds achieve the highest win percentage at 17.3%, and older horses produce the best HRN speed figures at 90. Two-year-olds generate the highest earnings per start at $10,235, reflecting the valuable stakes races available to this age group. Among Twirling Candy's older stakes-winning progeny are Santa Anita Handicap winner Gift Box, multiple graded-stakes winner Gear Jockey, Longacres Mile winner Law Abidin Citizen, and turf miler Bob and Jackie.
Proven versatility across the board
Twirling Candy has established himself as a reliable source of runners across multiple surfaces and distances, with 57 graded-stakes wins demonstrating his ability to produce high-class performers. His offspring show particular strength on turf routes, where they produce exceptional speed figures,, although he maintains solid win percentages across all categories. Though Twirling Candy has not sired a Breeders' Cup winner, his offspring are good in so many different divisions that his first could come from anywhere.