Sire stats deep dive: Is McKinzie living up to the hype?
McKinzie, a multiple Grade 1-winning son of Street Sense, is establishing himself as a sire worth watching with his first crop now racing as 3-year-olds. On Saturday, Scottish Lassie captured the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks to become his second multiple Grade 1 winner along with Chancer McPatrick.
Standing at Gainesway Farm in Kentucky, McKinzie's 2025 stud fee was raised to $75,000 after starting at $30,000 and remaining at that level through 2024. During his racing career, McKinzie was a top performer for trainer Bob Baffert and owners Mike Pegram, Karl Watson and Paul Weitman. He captured multiple Grade 1 events, including the 2018 Pennsylvania Derby and 2019 Whitney Stakes at Saratoga, earning over $3.4 million while showing versatility from seven furlongs to 1 1/4 miles on dirt.
Looking at his offspring, so far he has three graded-stakes winners and seven runners who are graded stakes placed. All of these races are on dirt.
McKinzie offspring, graded-stakes wins or placed
| Horse | GS level | Graded races |
|---|---|---|
| Chancer McPatrick | G1 winner | Won G1 Hopeful, G1 Champagne, 2nd G3 Tampa Bay Derby |
| Scottish Lassie | G1 winner | Won G1 Frizette, G1 CCA Oaks, 3rd G1 Acorn |
| Cash Call | G3 winner | Won G3 Summertime Oaks |
| Baeza | G1 placed | 2nd G1 Santa Anita Derby, 3rd G1 Kentucky Derby, G1 Belmont |
| Quickick | G1 placed | 2nd G1 Alciabiades, 3rd G1 BC Juvenile Fillies |
| McKinzie Street | G1 placed | 2nd G1 Del Mar Futurity, 3rd G1 American Pharoah, 3rd G3 Bob Hope |
| Kinzie Queen | G2 placed | 3rd G2 Black-Eyed Susan, 3rd Delaware Oaks |
Surface analysis: Dirt is preferred
McKinzie's offspring have demonstrated a clear preference for dirt surfaces, following in their sire's footsteps. With 448 total starts to date, his progeny have accumulated over $6.3 million in earnings, with the vast majority coming on dirt tracks.
| Surface | Sts | W | W% | Avg HRN | $/start |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dirt | 342 | 46 | 13.5% | 84 | $17,341 |
| Synthetic | 26 | 3 | 11.5% | 72 | $4,653 |
| Turf | 80 | 5 | 6.3% | 71 | $3,907 |
| Overall | 448 | 54 | 12.1% | 81 | $14,206 |
The statistics show that McKinzie's progeny perform best on dirt with a 13.5% win rate and an 84 average Horse Racing Nation speed figure. Most notably, their earnings per start on dirt are more than triple those on synthetic or turf, indicating they not only win more often on dirt but also compete more effectively in higher-value races on the main track.
Distance analysis: route potential
When analyzing performance by race distance, McKinzie's offspring show similar stats, but clearly the money is being earned in route races.
| Distance | Sts | W | W% | Avg HRN | $/start |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sprint | 243 | 31 | 12.8% | 79 | $9,361 |
| Route | 205 | 23 | 11.2% | 83 | $19,949 |
Surface and distance combinations
Breaking down performance by both surface and distance reveals more specific strengths in McKinzie's offspring.
| Surface/Distance | Sts | W | W% | Avg HRN | $/start |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dirt sprint | 205 | 28 | 13.7% | 81 | $9,935 |
| Dirt route | 137 | 18 | 13.1% | 88 | $28,424 |
| Synth sprint | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 70 | $3,658 |
| Synth route | 15 | 2 | 13.3% | 74 | $5,382 |
| Turf sprint | 27 | 2 | 7.4% | 70 | $7,328 |
| Turf route | 53 | 3 | 5.7% | 72 | $2,164 |
The most notable is the performance in dirt routes, where McKinzie's offspring average an 88 HRN speed figure and generate $28,424 per start, nearly three times more than any other category.
Detailed distance analysis
A closer examination of specific distance ranges provides further insight into where McKinzie's offspring perform best.
| Distance range | Sts | W | W% | Avg HRN | $/start |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 6F | 59 | 5 | 8.5% | 66 | $7,307 |
| 6F to 6.5F | 135 | 19 | 14.1% | 83 | $8,759 |
| 6.51F to 8F | 141 | 19 | 13.5% | 81 | $13,728 |
| 8.01F to 9F | 109 | 11 | 10.1% | 85 | $19,301 |
| Greater than 9F | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 105 | $177,800 |
Again here we can see that although win percentage and speed figures don't necessarily jump up in longer distances, clearly these offspring are competing in higher-level stakes.
Gender analysis
McKinzie appears to pass his talent fairly similarly to male and female offspring, although fillies are winning slightly more.
| Gender | Sts | W | W% | Avg HRN | $/start |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Male | 187 | 19 | 10.2% | 82 | $15,026 |
| Female | 261 | 35 | 13.4% | 80 | $13,618 |
Development pattern
Interestingly, McKinzie's offspring have won at about the same rate through their first three starts, although there is a pattern of increasing speed figures and higher earnings per start.
| Experience | Sts | W | W% | Avg HRN | $/start |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First start | 112 | 13 | 11.6% | 73 | $8,305 |
| Second start | 90 | 10 | 11.1% | 77 | $11,760 |
| Third start | 69 | 8 | 11.6% | 84 | $15,124 |
Age comparison: Better as 2-year-olds?
With his first crop now racing as 3-year-olds, we can compare performance across different age levels. And it is interesting that the McKinzie's have won at a much higher rate as 2-year-olds than they do now at age 3.
His current 2-year-olds have made only eight starts and are 1-for-8 so far, so this data is almost entirely about his first crop at the different age levels.
| Age | Sts | W | W% | Avg HRN | $/start |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2YO | 159 | 25 | 15.7% | 77 | $17,473 |
| 3YO | 289 | 29 | 10.0% | 83 | $12,408 |
Future outlook
It will be interesting to see how his star performers Baeza, Scottish Lassie and Chancer McPatrick perform inthe rest of 2025 and whether any other stars develop from this 3-year-old class, of which Quickick and Amarth are the most accomplished to this point. With only eight starts so far, we will have to wait and see how his second class performs.