Sire Spotlight: Complexity progeny are locked in on dirt
Complexity, a Grade 1-winning son of Maclean's Music, is establishing himself as a young sire worth watching with his first crop now racing as 3-year-olds. His Mo Plex recently captured the Grade 3 Ohio Derby for his first graded-stakes winner in June. Standing at Airdrie Stud in Kentucky, Complexity's stud fee doubled this year from $12,500 in 2024 to $25,000 for 2025, reflecting confidence in his potential.
During his racing career with trainer Chad Brown, Complexity showcased his talent on the main track, winning the Champagne Stakes (G1) at Belmont Park as a 2-year-old and later adding the Kelso Handicap (G2) to his resume at age 4. His racing prowess on dirt appears to be transferring to his progeny, who now are making their mark across various tracks and distances.
Surface analysis: strong dirt stats, turf not so much
Complexity's offspring have demonstrated a clear preference for dirt surfaces, with statistics showing significantly stronger performance compared to turf. With 379 total starts to date, his progeny have accumulated over $4 million in earnings with solid overall metrics.
| Surface | Sts | W | W% | Avg HRN | $/start |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dirt | 267 | 52 | 19.5% | 78 | $12,209 |
| Synthetic | 42 | 8 | 19.1% | 81 | $11,781 |
| Turf | 70 | 3 | 4.3% | 69 | $4,318 |
| Overall | 379 | 63 | 16.6% | 77 | $10,704 |
The data show that Complexity's progeny win at nearly identical rates on dirt, 19.5%, and synthetic surfaces, 19.1%, both well above the overall average. Their turf performance is significantly weaker at just 4.3%, suggesting that trainers should prioritize dirt or synthetic opportunities for these runners.
Distance analysis: Effective at various distances
When examining performance by race distance, Complexity's offspring show versatility, though with some notable patterns emerging.
| Distance | Sts | W | W% | Avg HRN | $/start |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sprint | 303 | 53 | 17.5% | 75 | $10,013 |
| Route | 76 | 10 | 13.2% | 84 | $13,460 |
Although his offspring win more frequently in sprints (17.5% vs. 13.2% in routes), they achieve significantly higher speed figures in route races (84 vs. 75). They also earn over $3,400 more per start in routes, suggesting that while they might win less often at longer distances, they tend to perform well in more lucrative events.
Surface and distance combinations
Breaking down performance by both surface and distance reveals more specific strengths in Complexity's offspring.
| Surface/ Distance | Sts | W | W% | Avg HRN | $/start |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dirt sprint | 227 | 43 | 18.9% | 76 | $10,502 |
| Dirt route | 40 | 9 | 22.5% | 90 | $21,898 |
| Synth sprint | 38 | 8 | 21.1% | 82 | $12,837 |
| Synth route | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 70 | $1,744 |
| Turf sprint | 38 | 2 | 5.3% | 60 | $4,268 |
| Turf route | 32 | 1 | 3.1% | 79 | $4,377 |
The biggest revelation is the performance in dirt routes, where Complexity's offspring win at a lofty 22.5% rate with a strong 90 average speed figure. Their earnings in these races average nearly $22,000 per start, more than double any other category, although those stats are padded by Mo Plex taking home $300,000 in the Ohio Derby. But considering only 40 of his 379 starts, about 10%, have been in dirt routes, connections might want to explore these opportunities more frequently.
Detailed distance analysis: Finding the sweet spot
A closer examination of specific distance ranges provides further insight into where Complexity's offspring perform best.
| Distance Range | Sts | W | W% | Avg HRN | $/start |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 6F | 102 | 19 | 18.6% | 64 | $9,273 |
| 6F to 6.5F | 169 | 29 | 17.2% | 80 | $10,457 |
| 6.51F to 8F | 66 | 10 | 15.2% | 82 | $11,861 |
| 8.01F to 9F | 42 | 5 | 11.9% | 83 | $13,356 |
Although win percentages gradually decrease as distances increase, both earnings per start and speed figures show the opposite trend. Notably, Complexity has not yet had offspring compete beyond nine furlongs. The data suggests his progeny may excel at middle distances between six and eight furlongs, where they maintain solid win percentages while producing competitive speed figures.
Gender analysis: Balanced talent distribution
Complexity appears to pass his talent equally to male and female offspring, with remarkably similar statistics across genders.
| Gender | Sts | W | W% | Avg HRN | $/start |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Male | 191 | 32 | 16.8% | 77 | $12,363 |
| Female | 188 | 31 | 16.5% | 76 | $9,018 |
With nearly identical win percentages and speed figures, the primary difference appears in earnings, where males generate approximately $3,300 more per start. This suggests that Complexity may be a versatile option for breeders regardless of the resulting foal's gender.
Development pattern: Improving with experience
As we would expect with most runners, Complexity's offspring show a clear pattern of improvement as they gain racing experience.
| Experience | Sts | W | W% | Avg HRN | $/start |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First start | 78 | 12 | 15.4% | 65 | $8,916 |
| Second start | 64 | 9 | 14.1% | 73 | $9,513 |
| Third start | 58 | 13 | 22.4% | 78 | $13,244 |
The progression is particularly striking by the third start, where win percentage jumps significantly to 22.4% from 14.1% in second starts. Speed figures also show consistent improvement from first starts, with 65 wins, to third outings, with 78, suggesting these runners benefit substantially from racing experience and development.
Age comparison: Consistent performance
With Complexity's first crop now racing as 3-year-olds, we can compare performance across different age groups.
| Age | Sts | W | W% | Avg HRN | $/start |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2YO | 166 | 26 | 15.7% | 70 | $11,261 |
| 3YO | 213 | 37 | 17.4% | 81 | $10,270 |
Future outlook
Complexity is proving to be a valuable addition to the Airdrie Stud roster. His progeny demonstrate particular talent on dirt with promising stats on dirt routes, including his first graded-stakes win in that category. It will be interesting to see how Mo Plex and other stakes runners develop in 2025 and beyond. At this point, his only other runner to hit the board in a graded stakes is Hollygrove, who ran third in the Miss Preakness Stakes (G2) at Pimlico in May. Although Complexity's talent doesn't seem to translate to turf, perhaps as racing connections keep the focus on dirt that will only improve his overall numbers.
As his first crop continues to compete at age 3 and his second crop begins their racing careers, Complexity is positioning himself as a promising young sire worth following.