Sidor: Secretariat's no lock to win the virtual Kentucky Derby

On Saturday, Churchill Downs Inc. will celebrate the first Saturday in May with a “virtual” running of the Kentucky Derby involving America’s 13 Triple Crown winners facing off in a fantasy race for the ages. In this "Triple Crown Showdown," it’s a given that 1973 champion Secretariat is the winner...right?

Many do, after all, regard Secretariat as the greatest Thoroughbred racehorse of all-time. His 10-furlong track record still stands at Churchill Downs even after nine renewals of the Breeders’ Cup Classic were run there, hosting numerous champions along the way.

Monarchos dipped below two minutes for his final time in the 2001 Derby, while the fastest Classic run thus far finished in 2:00.75. So Secretariat’s mark of 1:59.4 lives on.

Now, 47 years later in a virtual matchup with many of the top thoroughbreds ever to race in the world on dirt, can anyone defeat Big Red? Or, is the result of this virtual race a foregone conclusion? 

There are a number of factors which could beg for a different outcome when they head postward at approximately 5:45 p.m. ET.

RELATED: Run down the Triple Crown Showdown odds 

Track Maintenance 

An entire science has been developed to support racetrack maintenance. This has resulted in the use of better equipment, more regular track renovation during races, the spacing of watering the track to promote speed, and the use of a better soil composition to allow for water run-off and surface resilience. Faster tracks have allowed for faster final times.     

So, the Triple Crown winners before Secretariat did not have the benefit of the same “fast” tracks that he and the four after him had. Not only that, but better drainage system and soil blends have improved performance on off tracks, especially when wet. Some locals believe that Pimlico Race Course is actually a bit faster when it is wet. And half of the six races of the last two Triple Crown winners have been run on off tracks. This could move Secretariat’s rivals forward.

Breeding 

Horses have always been bred for speed. However, in recent decades the focus has been much more on speed over stamina, and even durability. In fact, speed is not always enough. A premium has been placed on early speed. Owners want to not only win, but win quickly at age 2.

Breeding giant Coolmore has predicated much of its North American operation’s success on champion 2-year olds from Lookin At Lucky (2009) Uncle Mo (2010), Hansen (2011), Shanghai Bobby (2012), American Pharoah (2014) and Classic Empire (2016). Of course, Lookin at Lucky and American Pharoah also managed to be champions at 3, but it was their precocity which has been the target.

Breeding for speed has resulted in a more limited gene pool which could give the edge to earlier Triple Crown winners. This has resulted in much more inbreeding than had happened in the past and is further complicated by the use of Lasix, with horses requiring the medication passing that trait on to their progeny.  

Horse Care

There have been significant changes in the care of thoroughbred race horses since 1948: horse feed; vitamins and supplements; and medical treatment. In recent decades, it has been determined that a thoroughbred race horse needs about 45 kgs of digestible energy a day to generate enough calories to meet the demands of training. In addition, horse feed and supplements are designed to address maximizing performance getting the horses the nutrients the animal needs to perform well. Further, science tells us for horses with larger appetites requiring more than 15 kgs of grain per day, it is best to do it in three feedings rather than two to avoid digestive system problems. Much of this information was not available in the days of early Triple Crown winners.

On the medical side, while science has offered improvements in the assessment and treatment of horses which has improved performance, it seems that horses are not as durable as they were earlier in the last century. In 1960 horses averaged more than 11 starts per year. Today, that number has dwindled to 6.2. The expanded use of the diuretic furosemide, brand name Lasix, in the 1980s to reduce exercise induced pulmonary hemorrhaging that occurs in a horse’s lungs may have had an impact. As a horse reaches a top level of exertion, bleeding occurs, more in some horses than others.

A 1999 Ohio State University study of 22,589 thoroughbreds found that 74 percent of horses using the drug “raced faster, were 1.4 times more likely to win a race, and 1.2 times more likely to finish in the top three.” Lasix is seen as a performance enhancer because, at a minimum, it reduces a horse’s liquid weight by 20-30 pounds. On the other hand, the longest gulf between Triple Crown winners — 37 years — occurred after the introduction of Lasix. So perhaps the drug has had an adverse impact on a horse’s ability to put forth three consecutive, demanding performances over a five-week span. 

While it is impossible to place a definite value on how much performance improves as a result of nutritional and medical advances, there is no doubt that some of these factors would likely improve the performance of past Kentucky Derby winners. The question is how much?

Speed and Margin of Victory

Secretariat was not the only exceedingly fast horse that won the Triple Crown. Whirlaway set the Kentucky Derby track record of 2:01.4 when knocking 2/5s of a second off the mark set by Twenty Grand in the 1931 race. Whirlaway’s record held for 21 years until in 1962 when Decidedly bested the time by a full second. Secretariat became the first horse to win under the time of 2:00 flat set by Northern Dancer two years after Decidedly set his record. In setting the track record nine years later, Secretariat knocked 3/5s of a second off the time. Since Whirlaway’s record-setting performance in the Kentucky Derby, 16 other horses have run faster in the race, six in the last two decades. Only four Triple Crown winners are credited in the top 50 Kentucky Derby final times: Secretariat (No. 1); Affirmed at 2:01.2 (No. 12); Whirlaway (No. 17), and Seattle Slew at 2:02.2 (No. 37).   

Affirmed also has the distinction of running the fastest 10 furlongs of any Triple Crown, winner, though that happened at four years old. He ran a 1:58.6 in the Santa Anita Handicap and a 1:58.4 in the Hollywood Gold Cup.  

The record for the Kentucky Derby margin-wise is eighth lengths. This measure was set by Old Rosebud in 1914 and equaled by Johnstown in 1939, by Whirlaway in 1941 and by Assault in 1946. The great Secretariat won by a widening two and a half lengths. Other Triple Crown winners won by an average of three and a half lengths and no less than one and a half lengths until American Pharoah won the race by a single length in 2015, and Justify by two and a half lengths in 2018. 

Every Triple Crown winner except Omaha, Assault and Justify set or equaled a stakes or track record as a 2, 3 or 4-year old. Of course, Omaha pushed 1935’s 2-year old champion Balladier to set a track record in the Champagne Stakes, losing by a nose. While Justify’s short racing career did not involve any such records, he did record the fastest 3-year old speed figures leading up to the Triple Crown races. These were all fast horses.  

Track Conditions

The Meadow Stables charge Secretariat had the benefit of a fast track. However, some of his challengers in this virtual race did not. Citation’s 1948 Derby and Justify’s 2018 victory came over sloppy tracks. Assault’s eight-length romp was over a track rated as “slow.” Omaha and Gallant Fox succeeded in the race over surfaces rated “good,” though Omaha’s was pretty sloppy, while Sir Barton won the race in the slowest time of a Triple Crown winner over a surface characterized as “heavy.” His time was a pedestrian of 2:09.8. Thus, almost half of the Triple Crown winners won their Kentucky Derby on tracks graded less than fast. 

Are any of these factors enough to enable any of these competitors to defeat Secretariat in the Kentucky Derby? It remains unclear. However, it does offer some pause if you want to judge the winner of this virtual race other than on just raw time, and it is a fun exercise no matter the result. 

Race Predictions

One can assume that the virtual Kentucky Derby is going to be run on a fast track, with clear weather conditions. Churchill Downs has its track renovation down to a science where the surface will be in top condition, watered to guarantee maximum speed. A virtually clear sky is also likely to be forecast. This should allow horses like Assault, Citation, Omaha and Sir Barton the best chance possible to succeed. 

There is likely to be a lot of speed up front as the front-running Count Fleet, Justify, Seattle Slew, Sir Barton and War Admiral go out. If the pace is slow, Affirmed, American Pharoah and Citation could be near the leaders. If not, they would lay right off of them. Early fractions on fast tracks for Triple Crown winners’ Kentucky Derbys have ranged from 45 3/5 seconds in the 1978 and 2018 editions, to 47 1/5 and 47 2/5 seconds for the 1973 and 2015 editions. Given the quality competition in this race, the early pace is likely to be around 46 seconds flat for the first half mile. A horse like Justify who went in 22 and change just behind the leader could compromise himself at the outset of the race if he tries to go at the same pace here. Also, the lack of a 2-year old racing foundation may also hurt him.

Champions Gallant Fox, Omaha, Secretariat and Whirlaway were deep closers in the Kentucky Derbys they won, and will be running toward the back of the pack in the early going. However, depending upon how fast the pace is this could change for them. While Secretariat was coming off an infection in the Wood Memorial before this race, he demonstrated in the Preakness Stakes that he could basically make a move at any point in a race moving from last to first. Should the virtual Derby’s creators decide as a premise for the race that all horses enter it fully healthy, that could be a strong factor in Secretariat’s favor.

Assault would be in the middle of the field at this point, with Justify and Sir Barton dueling with each other coming out of the first turn, and Seattle Slew pressing them. The Triple Crown 3/4-mile call time ranged between 1:10 3/5 seconds in 1976 and 1:12 2/5 seconds in 1937 over fast tracks. The pace would likely be slightly quicker given the field quality coming it at 1:10 flat. At this point, the rest of the pack is settled behind the leaders as they realize they want no part of such a fast pace. Nearing the mile pole, expect Justify to tire as Sir Barton moves past. His lack of seasoning against such a strong field has him bowing out first. Seattle Slew could pass the fading Justify and begin making his move to take the lead from Sir Barton while Count Fleet and War Admiral will jockey for position right behind them. Count Fleet can go wide and sweep into third place a length behind Seattle Slew who will be head and head with Sir Barton. 

The quick early fractions should begin to take their toll on Sir Barton as the field passes the mile mark. The range for mile times in Kentucky Derbys won by eventual Triple Crown winners is between 1:35 4/5 in 1978 seconds and 1:37 2/5 seconds in 1937. Again, the pace is likely faster than the 1978 edition with this top field of Triple Crown winners at 1:35 1/5.Seattle Slew can take the lead with Count Fleet breathing down his throat as they approach the top of the stretch, and the closers will get ready to roll. Gallant Fox and Omaha just cannot close over the surface. They’ll pass the horses fading. 

By this time, American Pharoah would be moving forward trying to follow Citation and Affirmed, the latter being quite comfortable with this pace. As they enter the stretch, Count Fleet could wear Seattle Slew down and take the rail as Affirmed and Citation approach. Will American Pharoah find another gear? Citation and Affirmed can then swallow up Count Fleet with American Pharoah in third as Secretariat and Whirlaway move down the stretch like “tremendous machine(s).” As they approach the wire, it is any horse’s race.

Given this scenario, I would box five horses in a superfecta. In alphabetical order: Affirmed;,American Pharoah, Citation, Secretariat and Whirlaway. Let’s see if Secretariat is the lock many think he is when the virtual Derby runs Saturday.

Todd Sidor, an attorney by trade, has helped produce equine law seminars, and is a member of several racing partnerships for a number of years. His more than two decades passion and respect for the sport of horse racing will always make him, first and foremost, a racing enthusiast.