Shuvee fair odds: Clairiere vs. Nest comes down to a coin flip

Admittedly, the Grade 2, $200,00 Shuvee Stakes on Sunday at Saratoga is unlikely to be a sexy wagering affair, but I could not risk the allure of making fair odds for a four-horse field with two clear contenders for the win spot.

I wrestled with just how high to go on No. 1 Skratch Kat, who would be one of the biggest upsets in the history of sports if she were to shock the world in the Shuvee, and even on No. 3 Pistol Liz Ablazin, who certainly would be a shock in the win spot but is much more likely than Skratch Kat.

Then, of course, it's how low to go on the top two choices. On the morning line, both are odds on, and I agree with that. But that's impossible with a fair-odds line, so I had a couple questions to answer.

Is one of these horses more likely to win than the other?

Is that more likely winner better than 50 percent to win?