Shutty: Inside the makings of a 28-1 longshot pick

Mike Shutty, author of Horse Racing Nation's Super Screener handicapping system, looks back at the weekend that was...

On Saturday’s Millions Preview card at Gulfstream Park West, the Millions Filly & Mare Turf event was featured as a Super Screener race given it appeared to offer some of the best wagering value among the day’s stakes across the U.S. That was an understatement in the end.

The Super Screener Top Longshot pick in the race, Picara was ranked second overall by our system and was just one of two “A” horses in the race. She was clearly pointed to this event on her way to a new lifetime top as revealed by the Super Screener.

Picaro lit up the board, winning at unbelievable odds of 28-1 after being assigned a 12-1 morning line via a perfect, ground-saving trip. 

Here’s what the Super Screener uncovered before the race on this very “haveable” longshot bomber:

“#5 Picara won this race last year, submitting her lifetime top. All three of her career victories have come on this turf course, so you have to respect her again here and the odds may be more generous this time around. She’ll be discounted off that better-than-it-looks prep race in which she ran evenly while wide — more of a public workout. Great type of prep to move forward off of on the way to another top performance.”

Let’s take a look at how the Super Screener surfaced this 28-1 shot and made it a top win pick:

Here’s the Brisnet past performance data for Picara. The first thing we want to draw your attention to is that this 4 year-old filly has raced 13 times, with all three wins coming at Gulfstream Park West in just four starts. She doesn’t so much as have an exacta finish in nine starts at Gulfstream Park. That’s pretty strong evidence that this is a classic “horse for course”. 

Next, note that she won this race last year rather handily, resulting in a lifetime top. In that race prior against easier competition, she won convincingly, though the Brisnet Pace/Speed Rating figures were sub-90 across the board. However, because she won that prep race, she went off as one of the favorites next out in last year’s addition of the Millions Filly & Mare Turf Preview stakes. 

This year, she really didn’t submit any race of note while racing at Gulfstream. In fact, she was put away after that race in March before returning in August to contest the hot pace in that comeback race and then fade badly. However, she followed that up with a much better effort going a bit longer running evenly throughout, which was a significant improvement over that August race.

Note too how she laid out 81-plus Brisnet Pace/Speed Rating figures while traveling wide throughout. That was nearly identical to the same way she laid out energy in the 1-mile prep last October in which she submitted 83-plus BRIS Pace/Speed Rating figures throughout before popping that new lifetime top.

As the red arrows indicate, she was on a form cycle ascent prior to both her 2018 and 2019 victories in this race. In addition, the works leading up to this year’s affair (highlighted in yellow) were quite strong, adding more confidence that she has been pointed to this race all along after winning it last year. 

The $2 exacta with Picara on top at 28-1 returned $330. Had the third-place finisher and other Super Screener “A” horse, #7 Souper Escape, managed to get up for second, we were looking at a $2 eexacta payoff north of $400. Fortunately, the suggested $.10 superfecta box was hit for more than $360.

Regardless, hopefully you used Picara prominently in your own wagers and enjoyed cashing big in this race. While it is naturally one of the slowest times of the year for stakes racing action, there is still money to be made in these minor stakes affairs, with a 28-1 winner worth the same on a Saturday at Gulfstream Park West as Breeders’ Cup weekend.