Handicapping takeaways from Omaha Beach's Derby defection
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Mike Shutty, author of Horse Racing Nation's Super Screener handicapping system, weighs in on changes horseplayers should consider with Kentucky Derby 2019 morning line favorite Omaha Beach scratched.
1) The pace setup lost a quality presser but picked up a new horse with that running style in Bodexpress. Given that, the pace is projected to be the same: about par or slightly below it overall. However, pace pressure will remain above average as nine pressers are expected to engage on the front end in the early going.
2) Improbable will still have the mission of ensuring an honest pace for stablemates Game Winner and Roadster, though he loses his primary target, Omaha Beach. Distance limitation is the concern with the son of City Zip, though he is talented enough to hang around for a piece.
3) Spinoff, who drew Post 19, benefits from the scratch of Omaha Beach as he will move one slot over in the gate to the 18. Only post positions 1, 19 and 20 earn Super Screener penalty points given those stalls' history. Spinoff has restored himself as a Top Longshot.
4) Baffert's pair of Game Winner and Roadster are also obvious beneficiaries of Omaha Beach's defection. They each move one slot over and will occupy the first two stalls of the auxiliary gate. That pair will have some extra room to their left due to the gap created by the main and auxiliary gates. Baffert wanted post 16 for one of his horses -- American Pharoah won from there -- and he'll get it again.
5) Bodexpress will assume the outside post. As a presser, he will be used pretty hard from that wide starting spot to secure position and will most likely run quite wide going into the first turn. He will be part of the Super Screener's "Toss" category.
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