Should horses race in preps or train up to Breeders’ Cup?

Lexington, Ky.

Trainer John Sadler did not even hesitate. Right after an indelible, 19 1/4-length tour de force in the Pacific Classic (G1) at Del Mar, he declared Flightline would not race again until Nov. 5 at Keeneland.

“The plan now is the Breeders’ Cup,” Sadler said. “He won’t run before the Breeders’ Cup.”

Breezes and morning gallops, sure. But nine weeks would pass between races for the colt now recognized as the best active racehorse in the world.

Flightline is not alone. Epicenter, widely recognized as America’s best 3-year-old male on dirt, will go 10 weeks between his Travers (G1) triumph and a showdown with Flightline in the $6 million Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Although he considered another race in between, trainer Steve Asmussen finally decided it was not necessary, especially when he remembered the last time Epicenter had a two-month break. As he put it the day after the Travers, “We’re very confident to train him up to the Classic with how well he ran sharp in the Jim Dandy (G2) when fresh.”

Flightline and Epicenter are a microcosm of the growing trend to “train up to the Breeders’ Cup” rather than compete in the final flurry of “win and you’re in” races four, five and even six weeks out.

In the last two years, 71 percent of the Breeders’ Cup starters had a last-out race within 43 days of the climactic meet. Between 2007 and 2019, the first 13 years since the event added a second day, that figure was 81 percent.

Sometimes it was a long-held plan for trainers to give their horses a break. Other times it was an 11th-hour decision, as when Wesley Ward decided Sunday morning to scratch stakes winner and likely odds-on favorite Love Reigns from that day’s Indian Summer even though it was a last chance to automatically qualify for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf.

“I got to looking at it, and it was going to be 26 days until her race on Breeders’ Cup Friday,” said Ward, who was confident Love Reigns still would get to race Nov. 4. “I just didn’t want her to run her Breeders’ Cup race (Sunday).”

And not in the Juvenile Fillies Turf. Ward said he intended to enter Love Reigns in the Juvenile Turf Sprint.

To race or not to race once in the early fall before the two big days in November is a dilemma more and more trainers are facing.

“It’s a very delicate balance,” said Todd Pletcher, whose has 12 Breeders’ Cup wins. “We’ve had success doing both. With Liam’s Map and Stop Charging Maria (in 2015), we trained them up to it. With Malathaat last year, I think we’d have been better off having a prep in between. You’ve just got to play it year by year.”

Pletcher’s own second guessing came after Malathaat, a 7-2 second choice, finished third to 49-1 long shot Marche Lorraine of Japan in the 2021 Distaff at Del Mar. She had not raced in the 11 weeks after her win in the Alabama (G1). Her only previous loss had come after nearly three months on the bench.

That recent history factored into Pletcher’s decision to race Malathaat on Sunday. She won the Spinster (G1) at Keeneland, which will host the Breeders’ Cup this fall for the third time.

Even though the Breeders’ Cup loss last year did not keep Malathaat from winning an Eclipse Award as the best 3-year-old filly of 2021, Pletcher said, “If I had a do-over, I would have had a run in between.”

Chad Brown, whose 15 victories rank third among Breeders’ Cup trainers, said his decisions to race or rest depend on the individual horses. Among those who helped him win the Saratoga training title this summer, Brown offered three examples – In Italian, Regal Glory and Technical Analysis. On their way to the Breeders’ Cup, they finished first, second and fourth, respectively, Saturday in the First Lady (G1) at Keeneland.

“In Italian needed a prep because she hadn’t run since the (July 16) Diana (G1). She kind of skipped in between. Freshened her up a little bit for a Breeders’ Cup run,” Brown said. “Technical Analysis (winner Aug. 27 of the Ballston Spa, G2) is a little bit of a workmanlike horse that seems to thrive on racing on a regular basis. And Regal Glory (second Aug. 13 in the Fourstardave Handicap, G1), a little freshening since Saratoga, too. I think it’s important for this particular group of horses to have a recent race to the Breeders’ Cup 4-5 weeks out.”

On the other hand, Brown will send Jack Christopher and Search Results to the Breeders’ Cup after 10 weeks on the bench. Racing Aug. 27 at Saratoga, Jack Christopher won the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial, his second Grade 1 victory this year, about 40 minutes before Search Results placed second to Malathaat in the Personal Ensign (G1).

Although they have not raced lately, they already are on site.

“You see they’re at Keeneland,” Brown said. “The rest of my Breeders’ Cup possibles are probably coming in next week.”

Although Ward decided not to push Love Reigns forward during the weekend, 2-year-olds from other barns were getting as much experience as they could before their big date Nov. 4. Especially if it meant getting a second turn for the first time.

“This is important. This is important,” Mark Casse said Friday after he trained Wonder Wheel to win the Alcibiades (G1) and qualify for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. “You never know if they can run two turns until you do it. I felt like she could. ... She was supposed to win (Friday), and we’ll see what happens.”

“It’s a different story with juveniles as opposed to older horses,” said trainer Brad Cox, who won the first of his two Eclipse Awards on the strength of four wins, including a pair with 2-year-olds, in the 2020 Breeders’ Cup at Keeneland. “They need the experience. They need to run. They need to kind of find their way.”

The numbers bear out what Cox said. In the five juvenile divisions of the Breeders’ Cup since 2007, 84 percent of the starters raced within six weeks of the meet. That compared with 77 percent in the competitions for ages 3 and up.

After he saddled Chop Chop for her second-place effort Friday in the Alcibiades, Cox said such experiences were especially valuable for young horses who are candidates for the biggest 2-year-old races.

“This is a big ask here, running against 13 other fillies,” he said. “Sometimes at some of the other places, you have Grade 1s and shorter fields. She got a lot out of this. You’ve got to go on with the 2-year-olds, I do believe. You’ve got to earn your way into the Breeders’ Cup.”

In some cases, trainers do not want to be forced into a race simply because of the automatic-qualifier cachet. As they might the rest of the year, they may look for an easier win. That is not so for others.

“I think with these bigger races, you can only control what you have,” said Jonathan Thomas, whose 2-year-old filly Delight used Friday’s Jessamine (G2) to win her way into the Juvenile Fillies Turf. “I can’t really worry about anybody else. I know there’s going to be some excellent horses coming.”

Brown did not mince words, saying, “I don’t pay too much attention to who I’m running against.”

Wayne Catalano has not been afraid to keep his Breeders’ Cup horses busy. When Aloha West won last year’s Sprint at Del Mar, it was his eighth race of the year, and it came four weeks after a second-place finish in the Phoenix (G2) at Keeneland.

This year Catalano is trying the same strategy with 6-year-old Manny Wah, who went one better than Aloha West by winning the Phoenix on Friday. But the four-time Breeders’ Cup-winning trainer said he respected any legitimate rival who was coming back from a break.

“A good, fresh horse is hard to beat,” he said.

As an example, Catalano mentioned reigning Eclipse winner Jackie’s Warrior, who will go into next month’s Sprint off a 10-week break.

“Asmussen obviously knows what he’s doing,” Catalano said. “He’s run pretty hard. He’s coming in with a fresh horse come Breeders’ Cup, and he’ll be tough to beat. If you get a good horse and he’s fresh, they’re hard to beat.”

But it happened last year, when a less-rested Jackie’s Warrior went off as an odds-on favorite and got sucked into a speed contest before wilting to finish sixth at Del Mar. That left Aloha West to pick up the pieces and win the Sprint.

Maybe, Catalano said wryly, that had more to do with the colorful trappings of the meet itself.

“When it’s Breeders’ Cup time,” he said, “and that purple comes out, we come to life.”