Kentucky Derby 2024: Shapiro analyzes pace beneficiaries
It is no secret pace plays a major role in determining the winner of Kentucky Derby 2024. Horses like Rich Strike and Giacomo were not the best of their crop, but they won the biggest race of the year because of a brisk first six furlongs. On the other hand, War Emblem took advantage of a slow first half-mile in his wire-to-wire, upset score in the run for the roses back in 2002.
The last couple runnings of the Derby saw extremely fast paces, and this year appears to have several runners that want to be on or near the front end, but that does not guarantee a swift tempo. If they go slowly early, it is pretty clear it benefits Fierceness most.
Early odds & analysis for Kentucky Derby 2024.
The 2-year-old male champion from 2023 has been virtually unbeatable when he has had things his way, but has struggled when forced to deal with adversity. The Todd Pletcher trainee has other ways of getting to the wire first, but by far his easiest path to victory is sitting off an inferior opponent setting a slow pace or paving the path himself under similar fractions.
Runners coming from the rear in the Derby obviously prefer a fast, contentious pace, but it is not impossible to come from several lengths out of it with a moderate early tempo to run at. That said, most of the late runners have proven to be race-shape dependent thus far, but Sierra Leone has been able to perform at or near his best without a fast pace to chase.
Two races back in the Grade 2 Risen Star, the son of Gun Runner was able to get by Track Phantom despite the Quality Road colt being left alone to control a 49.3-second first half-mile. Trainer Chad Brown definitely hopes the pace is hot, but his Sierra Leone is not hopeless if the tempo is more on the moderate side.
A number of runners will have their chances lessened if the pace is slow to moderate, but Honor Marie is the colt who is compromised most by a glacial first six panels.
The Honor Code colt has no early zip and has proven he is at his finest when he gets a hot pace to chase. He did so in November in his victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) as well as last month in his runner-up effort to Catching Freedom in the Louisiana Derby (G2). Veteran Ben Curtis is likely to try to save as much ground as possible early and come with a big run late as the speeds begin to stop one by one.
The Derby is one of the year’s most challenging races to handicap. Getting the pace scenario is huge in eliminating runners, which, in turn, hopefully leads to a huge score.
Scott Shapiro spent six years as a television host and handicapper for Churchill Downs Inc. He also analyzes sports betting with an emphasis on the NFL and the PGA Tour.