Shapiro: Betting Churchill's Saturday late Pick 5 on a budget
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TwinSpires.com and Churchill Downs racing analyst Scott Shapiro provided his take on Saturday’s Late Pick 5, which has a $500,000 guaranteed pool in Races 7-11.
Race 7
The
Winning Colors Stakes, a six-furlong dash for fillies and mares, looks like a two-horse race on paper. No. 8 Mia Mischief is the one to beat after a pair of easy victories to start her 5-year-old campaign for Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen. Once again, the Stonestreet Stables mare draws favorably to the outside, which should allow Ricardo Santana Jr. to work out a clear stalking voyage much like he did last time out in the Carousel Stakes at Oaklawn Park. The daughter of Into Mischief has won five of eight races under the Twin Spires and is tough to play against, but she will have to run down a fast filly in No. 2 Break Even. The daughter of Country Day put in a clunker to start her 4-year-old season but looked like her old self-disposing of a field of 10 last time out in Arkansas. Even a razor-sharp Mia Mischief could struggle to run Break Even down in the lane if she can shake loose early.
Race 8
No. 9 Ashiham makes her first start in Louisville after a runner-up effort going seven panels at Gulfstream Park in late April. The $800,000 Keeneland September 2018 purchase for Shadwell Stable ran into a good-looking Chad Brown first-time starter in Basquiat in that defeat last month. The Tapit colt should appreciate the stretchout to two turns but has struggled to get out of the gate in good order through his first two starts. The addition of blinkers could help, but at a short price, I do not fully trust. No. 3 Mau Mau was off a step slow in his debut in Florida on April 3. The son of Empire Maker trailed through much of the 1 1/16-mile event before picking it up a bit on the far turn and eventually finishing a well-beaten fourth. The Bill Mott trainee retains the services of Joel Rosario and, with a better start, should take a big step forward. He is capable of springing the upset, as is No. 8 Oceanic who stretches out to a route of ground after a runner-up performance going six furlongs at Tampa Bay Downs for Jordan Blair.
Race 9
Oddsmaker Mike Battaglia listed No. 6 Bingwa as the 3-1-morning line favorite based on her being the quickest from the gate in this 5 ½-furlong dash over the turf, but she is likely to get pressed by No. 1 Queen of Shades. Both runners make sense to include, but I like the chances of No. 8 Cardamon. The Pioneerof the Nile filly has yet to race over the sod but has the pedigree to like the green being out of a Touch Gold mare that has produced Emollient and Courtier. The 4-year-old filly should get a perfect outside stalking trip under Martin Garcia and has a big shot to hit the wire first. I will also give a look to No. 5 I’llhandalthecash in the second start of her 4-year-old campaign and No. 11 Dixieincandyland, who looks to make it two straight sprinting on the grass for Eddie Kenneally.
Race 10
No. 7 Fearless has run some fast races and brings the strongest resume into this high-level optional claimer at two-turns over the main track, but I prefer the late-blooming No. 8 Top Seed. The son of Orb has yet to go a route of ground but has the speed to make the lead under Corey Lanerie and comes off an extremely impressive victory versus lesser at Tampa Bay Downs on April 22. The Phipps Stable colt is bred to love the added ground and looks like a Shug McGaughey runner that could have a big second half of 2020.
Race 11
The finale, the
Mint Julep Stakes, is full of talented fillies and mares, but No. 1 Juliet Foxtrot stands out in her first try of 2020. The Juddmonte Farms homebred won her first three starts in the United States last year and then ran extremely well in defeat in her final three races, including a brutal beat to Vasilika in the John C. Mabee (G2) at Del Mar in late August. With little pace signed on in this year’s Mint Julep, look for Florent Geroux to find a prominent spot along the inside and make it a perfect 2 for 2 at historic Churchill Downs.
Suggested Wagers
Ticket 1: $15
R7: 8
R8: 3+8+9
R9: 1+5+6+8+11
R10: 8
R11: 1
Ticket 2: $18
R7: 2+8
R8: 3+8+9
R9: 8
R10: 7+8+10
R11: 1
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