Shapiro: 3 intriguing colts to use in Kentucky Derby superfectas
It is no secret that attempting to hit the superfecta in the Kentucky Derby is a challenging endeavor that can lead to a life-changing score. One only has to look back to 2022 to see Rich Strike’s late charge result in a massive $321,500.10 payout off of the minimum $1 denomination.
The challenge is not only to handicap the first leg of the Triple Crown efficiently, but to construct tickets that maximize your chances. For those of us who are on a smaller or middle-sized budget, finding horses to key around is mandatory, not optional.
Obviously, keying the Derby starters likeliest to win or hit the board gives horseplayers the best chance of cashing, but it also limits the payout ceiling to some extent. Sure, keying the two favorites for second and third (Epicenter and Zandon) two years back led to that six-figure payout, but that required a nearly impossible winner on top. Here are a few mid-priced 3-year-olds who make for intriguing superfecta key options this year.
Just a Touch, 10-1 morning line. The Brad Cox trainee is lightly raced coming into the Derby off of just three career starts and only one at two turns, but he has done little wrong thus far despite his 1-for-3 record. The son of Justify has the look of a horse who should handle the 10 furlongs, and his tactical speed gives him a better shot at potentially avoiding a traffic-filled voyage. His lack of seasoning is a slight concern, but he should get the jump on the majority of his main rivals. His likely off-odds make him a key worth considering on Saturday.
Honor Marie, 20-1. The Whit Beckman trainee is probably a bit more race-shape-dependent than Just a Touch, but if the pace is aggressive early, he has a big shot of passing the majority of this field in the lane. The son of Honor Code appears ready for another top effort in his third start off the layoff, much like the one he put forth over this surface in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) last November.
Just Steel, 20-1. The $500,000 Keeneland September 2022 purchase is listed at the same price as Honor Marie on oddsmaker Mike Battaglia’s morning line, but my guess is this colt offers far greater value underneath in the exotics. To no one’s surprise, the D. Wayne Lukas trainee comes in with the most experience, having raced 11 times, including a strong runner-up performance to Muth in the Arkansas Derby (G1) last out. Just Steel drew toward the inside and has hit the board in five of his last six starts, with his lone off-the-board effort coming when caught wide throughout in the Rebel (G2). If jockey Keith Asmussen can save ground early and avoid traffic, he can hit the board on his first Kentucky Derby mount.
Good luck!
Scott Shapiro spent six years as a television host and handicapper for Churchill Downs Inc. He also analyzes sports betting with an emphasis on the NFL and the PGA Tour.